Trends remain unchanged
Jon Strebler and the Dow Theory Letters
As I reported here Jon Strebler joined forces with Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory Letters some weeks ago.
My preliminary take on him (positive) has been confirmed as new “Dow Theory Letters” get published.
I like Strebler’s humble and no-nonsense approach. His latest message to investors is that flirting from one investment strategy to the next is a sure recipe to the alms-house. Value investors should remain value investors and followers of the Dow Theory should remain Dow Theorists. As Strebler rightfully notes, buying a stock because it is good value and selling it because the Dow Theory has turned bearish can be devastating to one’s wealth. As to his take of the current state of the stock market, he is bullish or, more exactly, his interpretation of the Dow Theory shows him the existence of a primary bull market.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish as per the Dow Theory.
Volume contracted today, which makes it a bearish volume day as advancing prices were not supported by expanding volume. As I wrote yesterday, the overall patter of volume is bearish and makes a secondary reaction more likely to occur.
Gold and silver
GLD and SLV closed strongly up. However, as one swallow does not make a summer, so one day “up” doesn’t make a bullish trend, not even one of secondary import. Accordingly, the primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
As to the gold and silver miners ETF, GDX and SIL, both closed strongly up. Accordingly, the primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for April 4, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 04/04/2013 | 155.86 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 6.71% | 14.86% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
