Stocks weak in spite of closing rally
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.
Bill Gross teaches us to be humble
Bill Gross, of PIMCO fame, in his article “A man in the mirror”, has made an exercise in humility. He concedes that most applauded gurus have enormously benefited by unusual secular tailwind. He thinks that a 40-year successful track record is no confirmation of “greatness” in the business of investing because unlimited credit expansion has lifted many boats.
It is a sobering piece, which every investor should read. You can find Gross’ article here.
Stocks
The SPY and Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday. Since stock closed down it has a bearish connotation as declining prices were supported by expanding volume. This is the third bearish volume day in a row within an overall bearish volume picture as reported here.
Gold and silver
GLD inventory did not budge yesterday.
GLD and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed down and up respectively.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for April 5, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.1 | |
| Last close | 04/05/2013 | 155.2 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 6.23% | 14.34% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.5 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.5 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.2 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
