Trends unchanged.
At last, one day without significant DowTheory events. Thus, after some lengthy posts, today I am going to keep it short in this Dow Theory blog.
Stocks
The SPY, Transports, and Industrials closed down.
The secondary turned bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed down, contracting volume has a bullish connotation, as lower prices were not confirmed by volume. For the reasons I gave here, I’d say that volume is bullish. Furthermore, the last breakup of 08/01 was a bullish pivot, as was explained here.
Gold and Silver
SLV closed up (by one cent), and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.
GDX and SIL closed down, and, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.
Last weekend, I posted a new episode of my saga “Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory“, which you can find here.
Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
| Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
| Last close | 08/19/2013 | ||
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 157.06 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -100.00% | -100.00% | 7.52% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
| Last close | 08/19/2013 | 15.33 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.20% | 44.76% | 45.04% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
| Last close | 08/19/2013 | 29.23 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 1.85% | 31.55% | 29.16% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
