Secondary trend for stocks remains bearish
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today in this blog.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed up.
The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed up, contracting volume has a bearish connotation, as higher prices were not confirmed by volume. We have had 3 consecutive volume bearish days in a row, which, prompts me to say that volume has ceased to be bullish and is now neutral.
Gold and Silver
SLV, and GLD closed up. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. HereI analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.
GDX and SIL closed up, and, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.
Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
| Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
| Last close | 08/22/2013 | 166.06 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 157.06 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -1.66% | 5.73% | 7.52% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
| Last close | 08/22/2013 | 15.66 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 1.95% | 47.88% | 45.04% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
| Last close | 08/22/2013 | 29.37 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 2.33% | 32.18% | 29.16% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
