Stocks continue trapped in secondary reaction
Stocks
The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down.
The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed up, contracting volume has a bearish connotation, as higher prices were not confirmed by volume. I’d label current volume readings as neutral.
Gold and Silver
SLV, and GLD closed down. Well, it seems that, for the time being, we don’t get a primary bull market in gold and silver. Yesterday, I noted that SLV had broken up the secondary reaction high that preceded the last recorded bear market swing. However, gold refused to confirm, and by so doing, the Dow Theory dictum was clear: No primary bull market had been signaled, as one of the basic tenets of the Dow Theory is that the movement of one index must be confirmed by the other one. I also wrote that the longer the non-confirmation persists, the higher the odds for a new pullback.
For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.
GDX and SIL closed down. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.
Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
| Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
| Last close | 08/28/2013 | 163.91 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 157.06 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -2.94% | 4.36% | 7.52% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
| Last close | 08/28/2013 | 15.4 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 0.26% | 45.42% | 45.04% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
| Last close | 08/28/2013 | 28.3 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -1.39% | 27.36% | 29.16% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
