Gold and silver back off
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today on this blog.
Stocks
The SPY, Transports, and Industrials closed down. The Transports made a lower low unconfirmed by the SPY and Industrials. The longer non-confirmation persists, the higher the odds for the end of the secondary reaction.
The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here. The chart below displays the current state of the secondary reaction (red rectangles), which has been with us since early August.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed down, expanding volume has a bearish connotation, as lower prices were met by volume. I’d label current volume readings as neutral.
Gold and Silver
SLV, and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. HereI analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.
GDX and SIL closed down. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.
Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
| Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
| Last close | 08/30/2013 | 163.65 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 157.06 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -3.09% | 4.20% | 7.52% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
| Last close | 08/30/2013 | 15.33 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.20% | 44.76% | 45.04% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
| Last close | 08/30/2013 | 28.13 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -1.99% | 26.60% | 29.16% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
