Mildly bullish day
Before I start with our Dow Theory commentary, you may be may be interested in reading my post in this blog entitled “Don’t fall in love with your stocks! Love is always dangerous” which you can find here.
Today was a mildly bullish day. The SPY barely nudged up. The Industrials and Transports closed up. Under Dow Theory, nothing has changed. The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary trend bullish.
Volume was lower than Friday’s. Since it was an “up” day, we conclude volume, once again, has been bearish. Furthermore, you can see in the volume chart below that the latest rally (blue trend line) has been negated by a trend line of declining volume (red line). This is the second time such a pattern is repeated in the last few weeks. Not a very bullish sign, indeed.
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| Two last minor rallies have been negated by volume action |
Gold and silver closed up. The primary trend remains bullish, and the ongoing secondary reaction keeps running its course.
The gold and silver miners ETFs closed also up today. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish. No changes in trends either.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for December 10, 2012 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bear market started | 09/14/2012 | 147,24 | |
| Bear market signaled | 11/16/2012 | 136,37 | |
| Last close | 12/10/2012 | 142,47 | |
| Current stop level: Bull market high | 147,24 | ||
| Price chg since bear mkt signaled | Tot decline since start bear mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 4,47% | -3,24% | -7,38% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149,46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160,54 | |
| Last close | 12/10/2012 | 165,8 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162,6 | |
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Min Pot Gain % | |
| 3,28% | 10,93% | 1,28% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25,63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28,92 | |
| Last close | 12/10/2012 | 32,14 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29,95 | |
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Min Pot Gain % | |
| 11,13% | 25,40% | 3,56% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17,08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21,83 | |
| Last close | 12/10/2012 | 22,85 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17,08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 4,67% | 33,78% | 27,81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39,56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47,77 | |
| Last close | 12/10/2012 | 46,52 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39,56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -2,62% | 17,59% | 20,75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
