No change in trends.
Since there are no changes in trends, today it is going to be a short post in this Dow Theory blog. Furthermore, I hope to post later this evening a more important post concerning the BLV/GLD ratio (long-term bond/gold).
The SPY and the Industrials closed down today. The Transports closed up again.
Since neither the SPY nor the Industrials have bettered the vital 09/14/2012 (SPY) and 10/05/2012 (Industrials) highs, the primary trend remains bearish while the secondary trend bullish.
Volume today was lower than yesterday’s. Given that it was a down day, it has a bullish connotation. The last three days have witnessed bullish volume, and overall I’d label volume as neutral (don’t forget that until recently, we had many volume bearish days).
GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) closed down, again, today. Silver by refusing to violate its Nov 2 secondary reaction lows, once again has saved the day, and a primary bear market signal has been averted. For how long? We don’t know.
SIL and GDX closed down today. However, there is no change in trends. The primary trend is bullish whilst the secondary trend bearish.
Below you can see today’s figures of the markets I monitor.
| Data for December 19, 2012 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bear market started | 09/14/2012 | 147.24 | |
| Bear market signaled | 11/16/2012 | 136.37 | |
| Last close | 12/19/2012 | 144.29 | |
| Current stop level: Bull market high | 147.24 | ||
| Price chg since bear mkt signaled | Tot decline since start bear mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 5.81% | -2.00% | -7.38% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Last close | 12/19/2012 | 161.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Min Pot Gain % | |
| 0.72% | 8.18% | 1.28% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Last close | 12/19/2012 | 30.11 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Min Pot Gain % | |
| 4.11% | 17.48% | 3.56% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Last close | 12/19/2012 | 22.5 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 3.07% | 31.73% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Last close | 12/19/2012 | 45.36 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -5.05% | 14.66% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
