Precious metals inconclusive
Let’s see how the markets fared under the Dow Theory
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down today. Neither the Industrials nor the SPY have confirmed the breakout made by the Transports on December 21. The longer the non confirmation persists, the higher the odds for a reversal of the last witnessed rally.
The primary trend remains bearish and the secondary trend bullish.
Volume was higher today. Since it was a clear down day, it has a bearish implication. If we take into account the monster bearish day of December 21 plus today’s bearish volume, I’d tend to say that the overall pattern of volume is bearish.
Gold (GLD) closed down. Silver (SLV) closed up. The primary trend and secondary trend remain bearish.
SIL and GDX closed mildly up. The primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.
| Data for December 26, 2012 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bear market started | 09/14/2012 | 147,24 | |
| Bear market signaled | 11/16/2012 | 136,37 | |
| Last close | 12/26/2012 | 141,75 | |
| Current stop level: Bull market high | 147,24 | ||
| Price chg since bear mkt signaled | Tot decline since start bear mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 3,95% | -3,73% | -7,38% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149,46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160,54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 159,73 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162,6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| -0,50% | 6,87% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25,63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28,92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29,95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0,28% | 13,15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17,08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21,83 | |
| Last close | 12/26/2012 | 22,3 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17,08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 2,15% | 30,56% | 27,81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39,56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47,77 | |
| Last close | 12/26/2012 | 45,15 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39,56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -5,48% | 14,13% | 20,75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
