Stocks and precious metals closed down
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down once again. The primary trend is bearish, and the secondary trend is bullish.
Volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since it was a down day, it has a bullish connotation. However, at least for the short term (i.e. two weeks) the overall pattern of volume is bearish.
Gold and silver closed down. Prices are consolidating around the Dec 20 lows. Given that the primary trend is bearish, the most likely outcome is a new leg down. Time will tell. In the meantime, the primary and secondary trend are bearish.
SIL and GDX closed down today. The primary trend remains bullish (albeit in its death throes) and the secondary trend bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for December 28, 2012 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bear market started | 09/14/2012 | 147,24 | |
| Bear market signaled | 11/16/2012 | 136,37 | |
| Last close | 12/28/2012 | 140,03 | |
| Current stop level: Bull market high | 147,24 | ||
| Price chg since bear mkt signaled | Tot decline since start bear mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 2,68% | -4,90% | -7,38% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149,46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160,54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161,16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162,6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0,39% | 7,83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25,63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28,92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29,95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0,28% | 13,15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17,08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21,83 | |
| Last close | 12/28/2012 | 22,04 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17,08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 0,96% | 29,04% | 27,81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39,56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47,77 | |
| Last close | 12/28/2012 | 44,93 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39,56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -5,95% | 13,57% | 20,75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
