Stocks down. Gold and silver up.
Let’s analyze the markets under the prism of the Dow Theory.
The SPY, the Industrials and the Transports closed down today. The secondary trend has turned bullish, which means that the current rally now qualifies as a secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend. Since the lows of 11/15/2012 (11/16/2012) eleven trading days have elapsed. As you know, for a secondary reaction to exist, it is necessary to have a rally (in a bear market) or a pullback (in a bull market) of at least 10 days. A second requirement is that the movement against the primary trend should have an extent in at least two indices of at least 3%. Both requirements have been met. Stay tuned as soon I will post a special issue on this Dow Theory blog concerning the details of the current secondary reaction. It goes without saying that the primary trend of stocks remains bearish.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s, since today was a down day, it has a bullish implication. Since the current rally started we have had only 3 volume bullish days. So overall the patter of volume is bearish.
As to gold and silver, both closed up today. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.
SIL and GDX, the gold and silver miners ETFs, closed down today. Technically, nothing changed. The primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for December 3, 2012 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bear market started | 09/14/2012 | 147,24 | |
| Bear market signaled | 11/16/2012 | 136,37 | |
| Last close | 12/03/2012 | 141,45 | |
| Current stop level: Bull market high | 147,24 | ||
| Price chg since bear mkt signaled | Tot decline since start bear mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 3,73% | -3,93% | -7,38% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149,46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160,54 | |
| Last close | 12/03/2012 | 166,13 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162,6 | |
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Min Pot Gain % | |
| 3,48% | 11,15% | 1,28% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25,63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28,92 | |
| Last close | 12/03/2012 | 32,52 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29,95 | |
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Min Pot Gain % | |
| 12,45% | 26,88% | 3,56% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17,08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21,83 | |
| Last close | 12/03/2012 | 22,58 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17,08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 3,44% | 32,20% | 27,81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39,56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47,77 | |
| Last close | 12/03/2012 | 46,48 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39,56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -2,70% | 17,49% | 20,75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
