Gold and silver down.
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today in this blog.
The SPY and Industrials closed down today. The Transports closed up. Technically, nothing has been accomplished. The primary trend remains bearish, and the secondary trend remains bullish.
Volume was higher than yesterday’s, since the SPY closed down, I consider it a down day and hence lower prices confirmed by higher volume have a bearish connotation; again. As you can see in the chart below the red arrows dominate.
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| Volume continues bearish. Red bearish arrows dominate |
Gold and silver closed down today. It is good to remember that now is the moment of truth for gold and silver. If they violate their 11/02/2012 secondary reaction lows, a new primary bear market will be signaled, if, conversely, they break their 10/04/2012 highs, the primary bear market will be reconfirmed and the secondary trend will be declared as bullish. In the meantime, we have to wait. Here you have an updated chart. The red lines may not be violated or else….The pink lines merely reflect the entry price and, thus, the distance between both lines is the profit that is likely to be locked in.
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| If the red line is violated a new primary bear market will be signaled for gold and silver |
SIL and GDX closed up today. No technical changes. The primary trend remains up. The secondary trend remains bearish.
Later, today, I’ll post a special issue in this Dow Theory blog concerning the new bullish secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend in stocks.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for December 4, 2012 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bear market started | 09/14/2012 | 147,24 | |
| Bear market signaled | 11/16/2012 | 136,37 | |
| Last close | 12/04/2012 | 138,75 | |
| Current stop level: Bull market high | 147,24 | ||
| Price chg since bear mkt signaled | Tot decline since start bear mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 1,75% | -5,77% | -7,38% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149,46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160,54 | |
| Last close | 12/04/2012 | 164,42 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162,6 | |
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Min Pot Gain % | |
| 2,42% | 10,01% | 1,28% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25,63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28,92 | |
| Last close | 12/04/2012 | 31,9 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29,95 | |
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Min Pot Gain % | |
| 10,30% | 24,46% | 3,56% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17,08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21,83 | |
| Last close | 12/04/2012 | 22,64 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17,08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 3,71% | 32,55% | 27,81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39,56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47,77 | |
| Last close | 12/04/2012 | 46,65 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39,56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -2,34% | 17,92% | 20,75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
