Unless there are major changes in the markets, I will post sparingly in the next few days. I wish the followers of this Dow Theory blog a merry Christmas.
US STOCKS
The primary and secondary trend is bearish, as explained here:
Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html
Following the primary bear market signal of Friday 11th December, stocks made lower confirmed lows on 12/18/2015. Hence, any secondary (bullish) reaction is to be counted starting from these last recorded lows. Hitherto, no secondary reaction has materialized yet. Here you have an updated chart:
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| Snapshort of a primary bear market. No secondary reaction yet |
GOLD AND SILVER
The primary and secondary trend is bearish as explained here.
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETF
The primary trend remains bullish as explained here.
SIL has violated its 9/10/2015 closing low (last primary bear market low) unconfirmed by GDX. Both ETF miners are under a strong secondary reaction (displayed by the red rectangles on the chart below).
We have to wait for GDX to confirm. Until then we cannot declare a new primary bear market. The longer it takes for GDX to confirm, the better the odds for the primary bull market to survive. However, price action is king. Since mid-November GDX has refused to confirm. Here you have an updated chart.
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| GDX (bottom) continues to refuse to confir. No primary bear market yet |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
