Precious metals mixed.
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.
The SPY, the Industrials and the Transports closed down. It is too soon to announce the onset of a secondary reaction (we need a pullback of at least 3% in two indices). Thus, the primary and secondary trend remains bullish until proven otherwise.
Volume was lower today than Friday’s volume. The downward movement was not confirmed by expanding volume, which has a bullish implication. The overall pattern of volume is subtly degrading (in the very short term). Here you have an updated chart. If you look at it, you will see that the latest pivot had bearish volume implications.
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| Is volume turning bearish? |
Gold (GLD) closed up, and silver (SLV) closed down. As you can see the Dow Theory has nothing to do with short-term trading as both the primary and secondary trend remains bearish (almost from time immemorial since almost 2 months looks like eternity for short term traders).
GDX closed up whereas its silver peer SIL (silver miners ETF) closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for February 4, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135,7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146,06 | |
| Last close | 02/04/2013 | 149,54 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135,7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 2,38% | 10,20% | 7,63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149,46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160,54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161,16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162,6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0,39% | 7,83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25,63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28,92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29,95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0,28% | 13,15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17,08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21,83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21,69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21,87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0,64% | 26,99% | 27,81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39,56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47,77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44,56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45,35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6,72% | 12,64% | 20,75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
