Precious metals still weak.
Barry Ritholtz blog “The Big Picture” includes an interesting post today entitled “Majority Opinion About Equity Markets.” He makes the point that markets can stay overbought longer than most can expect. This is precisely what we are currently witnessing in the stock market. Keynes said that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I’d add that markets can stay overbought longer than the average bear might expect.
While anything can occur, we should follow the trend. Until the Dow Theory tells us that the primary trend has turned bearish, we better refrain from fighting the trend.
The SPY, the Industrials and the Transports closed up. At the risk of repeating myself, I say that the primary and secondary trend remains bullish.
Volume was markedly lower than yesterday’s, which has a bearish connotation.
Gold (GLD) and silver closed lower. Until proven otherwise, both the primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
SIL (silver miners ETF) closed up. GDX (gold miners ETF) closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
During this weekend, I will post a new article in this Dow Theory blog. It is the sequel of my post “How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?”, which you can find here.
Here you have the figures of the markets I follow for today:
| Data for February 8, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135,7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146,1 | |
| Last close | 02/08/2013 | 151,8 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135,7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 3,93% | 11,86% | 7,63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149,5 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160,5 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161,2 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162,6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0,39% | 7,83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25,63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28,92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29,95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0,28% | 13,15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17,08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21,83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21,69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21,87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0,64% | 26,99% | 27,81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39,56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47,77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44,56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45,35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6,72% | 12,64% | 20,75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
