And trends remain unchanged
Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today.
US stocks
The Transports, the Industrials and the SPY closed up.
Volume was bullish as today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s.
Stocks remain at crossroads, as explained here: Either a primary bear market will be signaled if they swoon or the primary bull market will be reconfirmed if they break above the last recorded closing highs. Here you have an updated chart. Keep an eye on the blue and red horizontal lines.
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| Dissection of al relevant juncture |
The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given hereand here.
Gold and Silver
SLV and GLD closed up. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.
On a statistical basis the primary bear market for GLD and SLV is getting old. More than one year since the bear market signal was flashed has elapsed. However, I am extremely skeptical as to the predictive power of statistics. I prefer price action to guide me, and the Dow Theory tells me that the primary trend remains bearish until reversed.
Furthermore, the June 27, 2013 lows remain untouched. The longer this situation lasts, the higher the odds that something might be changing. But I wait for the verdict of price action.
As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed up. The secondary trend is bullish, as explained here.In spite of short term bullish accomplishments, SIL and GLD are not in a primary bull market.
The primary trend for SIL and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained hereand here.
Here you have the figures for the SPY which represents the only market with a suggested open long position:
| Data for February 11, 2014 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
| Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
| Last close | 02/11/2014 | 181.98 | |
| Current stop level: Secondary reaction low | 174.17 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 7.76% | 15.87% | None | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
