Precious metals and stocks close up.
Recently, Richard Russell, author of the famed “Dow Theory Letters,” with almost 60 years of experience on his back stated:
“Despite a steady parade of fear stories and scary newspaper headlines, the markets plow steadily and fearlessly ahead. I can’t explain it, nor do I want to, but ultimately, I will depend on my charts to tell me what’s really going on.”
I couldn’t say it better. This is the mind of a Dow Theorist, of a technical analyst speaking.
This is why I normally refuse to mix news, gossips and fundamentals with my daily analysis. The result is a less spicy, somewhat drier commentaries but an honest effort at determining the real trend of the markets.
Well let’s turn our eyes to the stock market.
The SPY, Industrials and Transport closed up once again. As I wrote in my post “No time for excuses. Stocks market in primary bull market even under “classical” Dow Theory” which you can find here the trend of the market was declared bullish on January 18 according to the “classical/Rhea” Dow Theory flavor.
As to our own Dow Theory flavor, which closely follows Schannep’s, it signaled the existence of a primary bull market on January 2, 2013, which means an advantageously 1.55% lower entry price.
The primary and secondary trend are bullish.
Today’s volume was lower than Fridays, which makes it a bearish volume day as rocketing prices were not supported by volume. The overall pattern of volume remains bullish.
Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish. If GLD keep going up (i.e. by staging a rally off the lows exceeding 3%) we could label the secondary trend as bullish. However, this has not happened yet.
The gold and silver miners ETF closed up. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for January 22, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.1 | |
| Last close | 01/22/2013 | 149.1 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 2.10% | 9.90% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.5 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.5 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.2 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Last close | 01/22/2013 | 22.06 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 1.05% | 29.16% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Last close | 01/22/2013 | 45.82 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -4.08% | 15.82% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
