Stocks mildly down.
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.
It is good to remember that yesterday a primary bull market was signaled by the Dow Theory. You can find the details about such a primary bull market here.
Tomorrow or next Saturday, I plan to post a Dow Theory special issue in this blog concerning the primary bull market signal. In this future post, I will deal with issues of interest to investors such as the likely risk/reward of the new position, where to place the Dow Theory stops, etc. So readers of this Dow Theory blog stay tuned.
The SPY and Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend is bullish.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Given that it was an overall bearish day, it was a bullish implication as the downward action was not confirmed by expanding volume.
Gold and silver closed strongly down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
SIL and GDX (the silver and gold miners ETF) closed strongly down. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for January 3, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135,7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146,06 | |
| Last close | 01/03/2013 | 145,73 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135,7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0,23% | 7,39% | 7,63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149,46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160,54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161,16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162,6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0,39% | 7,83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25,63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28,92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29,95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0,28% | 13,15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17,08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21,83 | |
| Last close | 01/03/2013 | 22,7 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17,08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 3,99% | 32,90% | 27,81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39,56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47,77 | |
| Last close | 01/03/2013 | 45,14 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39,56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -5,51% | 14,11% | 20,75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
