Stocks and precious metals down
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. The primary trend and secondary trend remain bullish. More about the primary trend bull market signal here and here
Volume was down today, since it was a down day, the downward price action was not supported by volume, hence making it a bullish day. Furthermore, we see that the last rally of the lows was supported by volume (volume expanding with price) whereas volume is contracting during the incipient consolidations we are currently seeing. I’d label this action as bullish. Here you have an update snapshot of the volume patterns. Red arrows denote a bearish volume day whereas blue arrows denote bullish volume days.
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| Volume slightly bullish short term |
Gold and silver closed down today. They are close to the primary bear market lows. We should remember that as per the Dow Theory, the primary trend is bearish so declining prices are more likely in the near term. More about the primary bear market signal in gold and silver here
SIL and GDX (the gold and silver miners ETF) closed down today. The primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for January 7, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 01/07/2013 | 145.97 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.06% | 7.57% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Last close | 01/07/2013 | 22.19 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 1.65% | 29.92% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Last close | 01/07/2013 | 44.48 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.89% | 12.44% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
