Stocks down.
Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today.
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down in unison today. The primary and secondary trend is bullish.
Volume today was higher than yesterday’s. Since it was a down day it has a bearish implication.
Gold and silver closed up. As per Dow Theory, I see very mildly bullish action in the charts. On 01/07/2013 GLD made a lower low by violating the 12/20/2012 lows. However, SLV refused to do so and hence did not confirm the lower lows. Of course, two days of non confirmation is not enough to make us bullish. However, if this non confirmation persists and, at the very least the 01/02/2013 highs would be jointly bettered by gold and silver, then I would be slightly less bearish. Nonetheless, such action wouldn’t even turn the secondary trend bullish as the mini rally staged from the 12/20/2012 lows to the 01/02/2013 highs didn’t even qualify as a Dow Theory rally, as the upward movement didn’t reach 3% for GLD or its volatility-adjusted equivalent for silver. Thus, technically, the primary trend and the secondary trend remain bearish. Here you have an updated chart concerning gold and silver action. As you can see all recent price action is occurring below the red lines (which defined the onset of the primary bear market). This is not a very bullish sign.
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| Bearish picture for GLD and SLV. The primary bear market is fully in force |
SIL closed down, and GDX closed up. The primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for January 8, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 01/08/2013 | 145.55 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.35% | 7.26% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Last close | 01/08/2013 | 22.06 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 1.05% | 29.16% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Last close | 01/08/2013 | 44.65 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.53% | 12.87% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
