Precious metals take a pause.
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.
US stocks
The Transports, the Industrials and the SPY closed up. However, volume was muted, which is a bearish sign. Yesterday we drew your attention to the secondary trend which has turned bearish.
The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here.
Gold and Silver
SLV and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.
As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX closed up. The secondary trend is bullish, as explained here.
The primary trend for SIL and GDX remains, nonetheless, bearish, as was profusely explained here and here.
Here you have the figures for the SPY which represents the only market with a suggested open long position:
| Data for January 28 , 2014 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
| Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
| Last close | 01/28/2014 | 179.07 | |
| Current stop level: Secondary reaction low | 165.48 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 6.04% | 14.01% | 2.05% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
