Primary trend of stocks continues bearish
Let’s begin with our Dow Theory commentary for today.
Stocks
The SPY, Transports, and Industrials closed up. As explained here, the Transports have failed to confirm for 5 consecutive days the higher closing highs made by the Industrials and the SPY . Therefore, no primary bull market has been signaled yet.
The secondary trend is bullish, as has been explained here.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which is bullish, as higher prices were supported by expanding volume. However, the overall pattern of volume remains bearish as:
1. There are more red arrows (bearish volume days) than blue arrows (bullish volume days), as you can see from the chart below.
2. Volume clearly recedes when prices stage a rally lasting some days (declining trend lines).
On the plus side, we have to note that five trading days ago, we had a bullish pivot (highlighted with an ellipse), as was explained here.
Here you have an updated chart:
 |
| Volume remains bearish |
Gold and Silver
SLV and GLD closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here. Furthermore, the secondary trend remains bearish too.
GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here.
The secondary trend for GDX and SIL is bullish, as explained here.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today, which contain no changes, as we are flat.
| Data for July 17, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Exit June 21 | 06/21/2013 | 159.07 | |
| Current stop level: Sec reaction lows | 161.27 | ||
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 8.91% | 17.22% | None. | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
