Precious metals and stocks closed down
Today is going to be a short Dow Theory commentary, as there are no relevant events.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed down.
The primary trend and secondary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which has a bearish connotation as volume expanded with declining prices. The overall pattern of volume is bearish for the reasons explained here. Here you have a chart that shows lots of red arrows (bearish). You can notice that the last six days (3 “up” and 3 “down) have been bearish volume days, which resulted in 6 red arrows. Volume contracts in up days and expands in down days. The updated chart below shows clearly that the trend of volume is clearly bearish: Ascending when prices decline and descending when prices rally.
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| I repeat myself ad nauseam: Volume is bearish. |
Gold and Silver
SLV, and GLD closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish too.
GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish too.
Eventually, one of these primary bear market re-confirmations will be proven false. In the meantime, it is better not to fight the trend, and wait for a primary bull market signal in order to make a commitment on the long side.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today, which contain no changes as we are flat.
| Data for July 2, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Exit June 21 | 06/21/2013 | 159.07 | |
| Current stop level: Sec reaction lows | 161.27 | ||
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 8.91% | 17.22% | None. | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
