Secondary trend for gold and silver miners ETFs continues bullish
Let’s see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed up. The primary trend is bullish, and the secondary trend is bearish (ongoing secondary reaction).
In my last two posts, I insisted that the market should stage a rally off the lows or else….The “else” is a primary bear market signal whose details were given here.
I also wrote yesterday that today could be the last chance to show technical strength, and thereby avoid the threatening primary bear market signal. Well, today the stock market displayed some strength. While it is still perfectly possible that the 06/05/2013 secondary reaction lows will be violated, today’s action has given stocks a breather.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which makes it a bullish volume day. If I were to be guided exclusively by volume, I’d dare to say that the action of the last three days gives some hope to the bullish case because:
1. The last two days were bullish volume days.
2. The last pivot low was bullish as volume contracted (more explanations here).
Here you have an updated chart displaying the volume patterns.
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| Volume readings have improved in the last three days |
Gold and Silver
GLD closed down, and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs, closed up. The primary trend is bearish, and the secondary trend is bullish for the reasons given here.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today. Please mind that thanks to the ongoing secondary reaction, our Dow Theory trailing stop has been considerable raised.
| Data for June 13, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 06/13/2013 | 164.21 | |
| Current stop level: Sec reaction lows | 161.27 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 12.43% | 21.01% | None. | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
