Precious metals listless.
Dow Theory and Chinese stocks
As you know, the US stock market is in a primary bear market, as I have explained here, and further explained here. I also wrote that less than 5% was lost from peak to trough, which is outstanding timing. So I wanted to see whether the Dow Theory would have done a good job at protecting investors in the Chinese stock market. As you can guess, the Dow Theory did a remarkable good job in spotting early enough (March 13) the change of trend for Chinese stocks, as you can read here.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed up.
The primary trend and secondary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s, which is bearish as ascending prices were not joined by raising volume. The overall pattern of volume is bearish for the reasons explained here.
Gold and Silver
SLV and GLD closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish too.
GDX closed down and SIL closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish too.
Eventually, one of these primary bear market re-confirmations will be proven false. In the meantime, it is better not to fight the trend, and wait for a primary bull market signal in order to make a commitment on the long side.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today, which contain no changes as we are flat. As you can see, now I talk of “realized gain” for the SPY as the trade has been closed today. My reading of the Dow Theory tells me to be flat in all markets: GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL and now the SPY. Time to sit on cash (being mindful of the dangers stalking cash in order not to be cyprused).
| Data for June 25, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Exit June 21 | 06/21/2013 | 159.07 | |
| Current stop level: Sec reaction lows | 161.27 | ||
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 8.91% | 17.22% | None. | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
