Jon Strebler of the Dow Theory Letters continues bullish long term on stocks
Jon Strebler’s more recent article in the “Dow Theory Letters” is full of common sense, while, once again, he cautions that a hair-curling correction may be at hand, he reminds readers that we should give the current primary bull market the benefit of the doubt, and accordingly stay with stocks (or sell down a bit to your sleeping point).
On the other hand, in the very same “Dow Theory Letter”, Richard Russell continues ultra bearish and counsels unambiguously his readership to be out of stocks.
What my take on this? I feel Strebler is doing the right thing, which is applying the Dow Theory, and not trying to second guess it. I wrote more about Russell’s position in this post on this Dow Theory blog.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary trend is bullish. The secondary trend is bearish, which implies that there is an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend (both trends determined according to the Dow Theory as per Schannep’s “flavor”). You can read more about the secondary reaction here.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday, which is bearish as the rally was not confirmed by expanding volume. The overall pattern of volume is bearish.
Gold and Silver
GLD and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETF, closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for June 6, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 06/06/2013 | 162.67 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 11.37% | 19.87% | 7.63% | |
| Alternative Schannep’s stoploss: | |||
| Highest closing high | 05/21/2013 | 167.17 | |
| 16% stoploss from highest closing high | 140.42 | ||
| Max Pot Loss % | |||
| -3.86% | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
