Transports closed down for a second consecutive day
Russell didn’t declare a new primary bull market in stocks
Finally, Richard Russell spoke.
He acknowledged that we are on uncharted waters due to massive QE (which is true) and thus, while acknowledging that new all-time highs in both the Industrials and Transports should lead to the proclamation of a primary bull market (I’d add: if not previously proclaimed by other Dow Theory “flavors”), he is reluctant to follow blindly the Dow Theory without reward to current circumstances.
Russell is too old, smart and experienced to be dismissed out of hand. I can only say that nobody went broke by being too cautious. Furthermore, Russell is advising his followers to be invested in gold along the secular bull market. Thus, it is very likely that Russell’s subscribers will end up making handsome profits by merely being invested in gold. However, as far as stocks are concerned, and within one’s percentage allocation to stocks (which may be modest according to personal circumstances and assessment of the current secular market), I feel leery as to completely ignoring a primary bull market signal, which has been previously preceded by other two primary bull market signals (“classical/Rhea” and “Schannep’s” flavor). Personally, and given Schannep’s and even the “classical/Rhea” Dow Theory track record, I feel that the price to pay by being outside the markets may be too high. My studies on the Dow Theory performance even under secular bear markets show that even under such an environment is possible to make extract profits from the market.
Stocks
The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. The primary and secondary trend of the market is bullish.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which makes it a bullish volume day, since advancing prices were met by expanding volume. We have had three bullish volume days in a row within a very bearish volume picture.
Gold and silver
24hgold.comreports that GLD has experienced the longest inventory drawdown since inception. Yesterday, however, the decline of inventories stopped. Will it hold?
GLD and SLV closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
The gold and silver miners ETFs (GDX and SIL) closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for March 7, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 03/07/2013 | 154.78 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 5.97% | 14.06% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
