Gold again up. Silver does not confirm.
Special note on GLD
GLD puked yesterday 13.55 tonnes or 1.09%, which is a massive “puke.” That such a puke occurs within a day when gold was clearly up is even more bullish as it denotes that higher prices don’t quench the thirst for physical gold (which can be had by redeeming a basket of GLD shares). Once again, I insist that those really interested in understanding GLD “pukes” should read the seminal work produced by Victor the Cleaner.
However, such avidity for physical gold, shows that something is brewing in the gold market. We are living exceptional and turbulent times, and we shouldn’t take anything for granted, as recent events in Cyprus have painfully shown.
Stocks
The Industrials closed up. The SPY and Transports closed down. The primary trend and secondary trend remain bullish.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday. This has a bearish connotation since declining prices were confirmed by expanding volume. The overall picture of volume remains bearish, which suggest that the odds favor the development of a secondary reaction. At the very least the reversal bar we had a couple of trading days ago, suggests that it is likely that we see some more decline ahead. If you look at the chart below, you can see that the previous reversal bar clearly had some downside follow-up (even though it didn’t materialize into a full-blown secondary reaction).
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| The reversal bar of last Friday is having follow-up |
Gold and silver
GLD closed up. SLV closed down. From a Dow Theory perspective, nothing has changed (all my GLD inventory talk notwithstanding) and, hence, the primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
GDX closed up. SIL closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
As you can see investing along the primary trend of the market can be boring (but fruitful long term) as many days pass by without a change in trends. However, such lack of action gives us time to study the markets and become better investors.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for March 19, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 03/19/2013 | 154.61 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 5.85% | 13.94% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
