All trends unchanged
GLD grew in tonnage yesterday.
At last, GLD gained inventory yesterday. Since February 7, 2013 GLD had not recorded one single day with inventory gains. Has the bleeding been arrested? Too soon to tell.
According to “The Reformed Broker” the odds favor a continuation of the current bull market in stocks
The Reformed Broker contains an interesting article concerning the duration of bull markets. Although the definition of “bull market” may not exactly coincide with the one given by the Dow Theory (of any “flavor” whatsoever), it is interesting to see that bull markets that made it to the four year tend to extend the advance into the fifth year. In other words, strength tends to beget strength and trends do exist.
By the way, similar conclusions are reached by Schannep in his book “The Dow Theory for the 21st Century”.
Stocks
The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. I see in the charts that neither index has managed to better the last recorded highs. If this situation persists, it will be hinting at the development of a secondary reaction.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since globally it was an up day, it has a bearish connotation. The overall patter of volume remains bearish.
Gold and silver
GLD and SLV closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, both GDX and SIL closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
If I manage to free up some time, I plan to post a new post (number IV) concerning Dow Theory performance in bull/bear markets. You can find the latest post here.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for March 20, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 03/20/2013 | 155.69 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 6.59% | 14.73% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
