Gold and silver miners make new lows.
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.
Special issue concerning Dow Theory performance and duration of investments made according to the Dow Theory.
Last Saturday, March 2, I posted a new study concerning the average duration of the investments made according to the “classical/Rhea” Dow Theory and the kind of profits (and sometimes losses) we can expect from them. It is must-read for any investor with a real liking for the Dow Theory. Furthermore, this post will open a new sage of articles whereby I will further analyze the Dow Theory. Until now, my studies focused on the year-end performance (as you can find here and here). The new articles will dissect each particular signal. As far as I know no such study has been published elsewhere.
Special note on gold
GLD lost last Friday (March 1) 0.610 tonnes of gold (0.048%). Thus, inventories have been declining for nine days in a row. Accordingly, inventories have declined from 1322.97 tons to 1253.88 tonnes, that is 69.09 tonnes or 5.22%.
If my readings of the GLD inventory spreadsheet are correct never before was such an uninterrupted spell of “pukes.”
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The Industrials are very near to their all-time highs. Both the Transports and the Industrials have bettered their previous 02/19/2013 high, which confirms the primary trend as bullish. The primary and secondary trend of the markets is bullish.
Today’s volume was lower than Friday’s. Since it was an up day, it has a bearish connotation as higher prices were met by receding volume. Even though the Industrials and Transports made higher highs (which is bullish) the pattern of volume is bearish short term, as explained here, which suggests that a secondary reaction might develop soon.
Gold and silver
SLV and GLD closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
As to the miners ETFs, GDX and SIL closed down and made a lower low. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for March 4, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 03/04/2013 | 152.92 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 4.70% | 12.69% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
