Stocks make higher highs
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials and Transports made higher highs. The primary and secondary tend is bullish.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday, which is bullish as higher prices were met by expanding volume.
Gold and silver
GLD and SLV closed down. Silver violated the 04/15/2013 low. However, in spite of its closing down, didn’t violate such low. If this lack of confirmation persist for some days or even weeks it might be indicative of a bottom being made. However, if GLD breaks below the 04/15/2013 lows, the primary bear market will be reconfirmed.
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| If GLD breaks below the horizontal red line, the primary bear market will be reconfirmed |
Here you have an updated chart that shows the current situation. If the blue horizontal lines are jointly penetrated, a primary bull market will be signaled as explained here. If gold closes below the red horizontal line, the primary bear market will be reconfirmed.
In the meantime the primary trend is bearish and the secondary trend is bullish.
GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs, closed down and are very near the primary bear market lows. The primary and secondary trend is bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.
| Data for May 15, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 05/15/2013 | 166.11 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 13.73% | 22.41% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
