Stocks’ rally stalls
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. The primary and secondary trend is bullish.
Volume was lower than Friday’s, which, once again, has a bullish connotation.
Gold and Silver
Gold and silver closed up. They didn’t only close up, but they did so by means of an outside reversal bar, which is, at bottoms, tends to be the harbinger of a rally of, at least, moderate proportions. However, you know that this Dow Theorist of yours tends to be kind of faithful to the Dow Theory tenets, and, accordingly, I am not in the business of calling either tops or bottoms. I am merely interested (and that’s already a big feat) in spotting changes of trend relatively early with a modicum of competence. Until this happens, and although I am not blind, and I know the meaning of an outside reversal bar, I will not yield to temptation and declare a change of trend (not even of secondary proportions). Such reluctance to deviate from the Dow Theory has paid me well during this secular bear market as you can read here
So, for now, the primary and secondary trend of GLD and SLV is bearish.
GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETF, closed up and by means of a reversal bar too. Let’s see what happens. In the meantime, the primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today. As you can read in my May 17, 2013 post “Introducing Schannep’s Stoploss for the stock market”, which you can find here, now we have two alternative stops. One strictly derived from the Dow Theory (primary bear market lows) which currently stands at 7.63%; the other one derived from Dow Theorist Schannep, which stands at a modest -3.99%. Personally, and being fully convinced by the solidity of Schannep’s work, my choice stands at–3.99%.
| Data for May 20, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 05/20/2013 | 166.93 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 14.29% | 23.01% | 7.63% | |
| Alternative Schannep’s stoploss: | |||
| Highest closing high | 05/17/2014 | 166.94 | |
| 16% stoploss from highest closing high | 140.23 | ||
| Max Pot Loss % | |||
| -3.99% | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
