Trends unchanged
It seems that the short term bearish pattern of volume I have been talking about on this Dow Theory blog seems to be winning (short term where it belongs) the upper hand.
Today the SPY, the Transports and the Industrials closed down.
However, technically, and more specifically, under Dow Theory, nothing has been accomplished. Nothing has changed. The secondary trend remains bearish, and the primary trend remains bullish.
Volume today, in spite of the violent reversal of prices, was actually lower than yesterday’s which, as you probably know if you are a follower of this Dow Theory blog, is a bullish sign. However, if we put things in perspective, the overall pattern of volume short term remains bearish.
Today gold, silver and their ETFs miners closed down. Again, technically nothing has changed. The primary trend remains bullish. The secondary trend for gold and silver remains bearish and has been confirmed as GLD and SLV jointly broke last week lows. Gold has retraced ca. 45% of the primary bull swing. Silver has retraced ca. 48%. So we are dealing now with a standard secondary reaction in terms of retracement. In terms of time this secondary reaction is still relatively young. Since Oct 4 (last recorded joint highs) just one month has elapsed. We know that secondary reaction may well last several months. So, again, patience is demanded. While it can finish overnight, statistically it is possible that the secondary reaction is not finished yet.
Where things get more interesting is in the precious metals’ arena. More specifically GLD. I plan to write later on the weekend a specific post concerning GLD, as it is at a level now that, provided the primary trend holds, may be appropriate for latecomers to establish a position. However, before jumping the gun, some serious thought should be made. This is what I will attempt to do tomorrow.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.
| Data for November 2, 2012 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/04/2012 | 128,1 | |
| Bull market signaled | 06/29/2012 | 136,1 | |
| Last close | 11/02/2012 | 141,56 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 128,1 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 4,01% | 10,51% | 6,25% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149,46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160,54 | |
| Last close | 11/02/2012 | 162,6 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 149,46 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 1,28% | 8,79% | 7,41% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25,63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28,92 | |
| Last close | 11/02/2012 | 29,95 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 25,63 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 3,56% | 16,86% | 12,84% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17,08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21,83 | |
| Last close | 11/02/2012 | 24,37 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17,08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 11,64% | 42,68% | 27,81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39,56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47,77 | |
| Last close | 11/02/2012 | 49,77 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39,56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 4,19% | 25,81% | 20,75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
