Primary trend remains bullish; secondary trend bearish.
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory analysis for today.
The stock market was indecisive. The SPY closed up, and the Transports and Industrials closed down for the day. So there are no changes from yesterday’s assessment under Dow Theory.
Later today, I will post in this Dow Theory blog more in-depth commentary as to the meaning of this secondary reaction, how to time an entry into it (for those latecomers) and what to do about the Transports. I am not ducking this issue, and you will be surprised by my answer. To deal with all these subjects rigorously takes a good deal of effort.
I really don’t know what to do about today’s volume, since it’s difficult for me to ascribe the day as “up” or “down” as we had mixed readings from the three indices we monitor. However, if I give more weight to the SPY (which is logical since it is the largest in terms of companies and more importantly capitalization), then it was a bullish day, since volume was up in an up day.
As to the gold and silver markets and their respective miners ETFs, we had a predominantly bullish day. Only silver closed down for the day. Technically, all the PMs universe remains caught in a tight trading range. Consequently the primary and secondary trend remains bullish.
Here are the figures for today of the markets I monitor:
| Data for October 11, 2012 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/04/2012 | 128.1 | |
| Bull market signaled | 06/29/2012 | 136.1 | |
| Last close | 10/11/2012 | 143.36 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 128.1 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 5.33% | 11.91% | 6.25% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Last close | 10/11/2012 | 171.32 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 149.46 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 6.71% | 14.63% | 7.41% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Last close | 10/11/2012 | 32.9 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 25.63 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 13.76% | 28.37% | 12.84% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Last close | 10/11/2012 | 24.73 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 13.28% | 44.79% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Last close | 10/11/2012 | 52.52 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 9.94% | 32.76% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
