No changes in trends.
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory analysis for today in this blog.
Our headline today is again the Transports. Whilst the SPY and the Industrials closed lower today, the Transports displaying greater relative strength managed to edge higher for the day. It has had an up close 5 days in a row.
Richard Russell has also noticed that the Transports are becoming stronger. In his yesterday’s “Dow Theory Letters,” Russell notes that the transports are gaining strength. More importantly, Russell draws an important conclusion, namely that this is a bullish sign. This Dow Theory blog already warned you about the increasing strength of the Transports on Oct 4 as you can read here.
So gradually Richard Russell and his “Dow Theory Letters” are becoming more bullish.
As I wrote yesterday, a down day was due. Technically, nothing changed.
Volume was bearish since we had a down day, and volume was higher than yesterday’s.
As to gold, silver and their miners all of them closed down today. However, again, technically nothing changed. SIL (silver miners ETF) continues much stronger than its gold peer and by refusing to violate the 09/26/2012 lows has negated the onset of a secondary reaction.
Here you have the figures for today of the markets I monitor:
| Data for October 18, 2012 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/04/2012 | 128.1 | |
| Bull market signaled | 06/29/2012 | 136.1 | |
| Last close | 10/18/2012 | 145.82 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 128.1 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 7.14% | 13.83% | 6.25% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Last close | 10/18/2012 | 168.79 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 149.46 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 5.14% | 12.93% | 7.41% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Last close | 10/18/2012 | 31.73 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 25.63 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 9.72% | 23.80% | 12.84% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Last close | 10/18/2012 | 24.55 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 12.46% | 43.74% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Last close | 10/18/2012 | 51.52 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 7.85% | 30.23% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
Disclaimer: Dow Theory Investment and its author is not a financial adviser. Dow Theory Investment and its author does not offer recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Please consult your own investment adviser and do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Please read the full disclaimer at the bottom of the footer of this blog.
