All primary trends remain bullish
There is not much to say in this Dow Theory analysis for today.
The Industrials and Transports closed up. The SPY was mildly down. Technically, nothing has been changed. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary one bearish.
Since the SPY has much larger capitalization than the Industrials and the Transports, I consider today’s movement as a down movement. Since volume today was larger than yesterday’s, I’d say volume is bearish.
It seems that the markets (especially the SPY) are consolidating. Either the bottom of the secondary reaction is forming or just a rest before the downward thrust resumes.
Gold, silver and their ETFs all closed down today. However, there is no technical change. All primary trends remain bullish.
I continue to keep my eyes glued to the BLV/GLD (long term bond/ gold) ratio. I feel the battle between gold and bonds will give us many clues as to subsequent developments. More on this vital ratio in my post “Dow Theory spells trouble for bonds: Clouds on the horizon. Part II” which you can read here.
Today the ratio was slightly up. Long term bonds closed up whereas their kryptonite, gold, closed down. So, for one more day, bonds are dodging the bullet.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor. As a reminder, the column “Max Potential Loss” reflect the loss an investor would suffer if, after having bought according to the Dow Theory signals, the markets reverse and hit the Dow Theory stop.
| Data for October 26, 2012 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/04/2012 | 128.1 | |
| Bull market signaled | 06/29/2012 | 136.1 | |
| Last close | 10/26/2012 | 141.35 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 128.1 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 3.86% | 10.34% | 6.25% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Last close | 10/26/2012 | 165.93 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 149.46 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 3.36% | 11.02% | 7.41% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Last close | 10/26/2012 | 31.08 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 25.63 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 7.47% | 21.26% | 12.84% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Last close | 10/26/2012 | 24.56 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 12.51% | 43.79% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Last close | 10/26/2012 | 51.22 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 7.22% | 29.47% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
