Today the Transports and the SPY closed up. The Industrials closed down. So we had a mixed day with no consequences. So there is nothing new under the Dow Theory.
Therefore, what I wrote earlier today “Dissecting a secondary reaction under Dow Theory” about the non existence of a secondary reaction remains valid and unchanged. You can find this post here
Volume was down and since overall I’d label the day as an “up” day (both the SPY and the Transports closed up), I’d say that we had a mitigated bearish volume day. So we have had 6 bearish volume days in the last 8 days.While always of secondary importance volume seems to be saying that the odds favor a secondary reaction soon.
As to the precious metals gold, silver and their respective miners ETFs closed down for the day. However, all the action occurred near the latest recorded highs and no technical damage has been made.
Bottom line: Both the primary and even the secondary trend remain bullish.
As to bonds, it seems the world is not ready to end yet. The long term bond (BLV) /gold (GLD) ratio refuses to break down and give a primary bear signal. I keep monitoring this chart like a hawk. Here you have an updated chart. The green horizontal line is the significant level of the ratio to be violated in order to declare a bear market in bonds.
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| Bonds are not ready to collapse in spite of technical danger |
Here you have the figures for today:
| Data for October 2, 2012 | |||||||||||||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||||||||||||
| SPY | |||||||||||||
| Bull market started | 06/04/2012 | 128.1 | |||||||||||
| Bull market signaled | 06/29/2012 | 136.1 | |||||||||||
| Last close | 10/02/2012 | 144.5 | |||||||||||
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 128.1 | ||||||||||||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |||||||||||
| 6.17% | 12.80% | 6.25% | |||||||||||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||||||||||||
| GLD | |||||||||||||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |||||||||||
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |||||||||||
| Last close | 10/02/2012 | 172.1 | |||||||||||
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 149.46 | ||||||||||||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |||||||||||
| 7.20% | 15.15% | 7.41% | |||||||||||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||||||||||||
| SLV | |||||||||||||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |||||||||||
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |||||||||||
| Last close | 10/02/2012 | 33.5 | |||||||||||
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 25.63 | ||||||||||||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |||||||||||
| 15.84% | 30.71% | 12.84% | |||||||||||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||||||||||||
| SIL | |||||||||||||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |||||||||||
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |||||||||||
| Last close | 10/02/2012 | 25.01 | |||||||||||
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||||||||||||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |||||||||||
| 14.57% | 46.43% | 27.81% | |||||||||||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||||||||||||
| GDX | |||||||||||||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |||||||||||
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |||||||||||
| Last close | 10/02/2012 | 53.59 | |||||||||||
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||||||||||||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |||||||||||
| 12.18% | 35.47% | 20.75% | |||||||||||
