Trends remain unchanged
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today in this blog.
US stocks
The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down.
The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, for the reasons given here.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s, which is bearish, as higher prices did not attract more volume. I consider volume to be bearish for the reasons given here and here. Furthermore, the trendline of volume of the last few days is ominously bearish, as volume has steadily contracted as prices advanced. Here you have an updated chart:
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| Volume is bearish short term |
Gold and Silver
SLV closed down, and GLD closed up. For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish, all the recent strong action notwithstanding. HereI analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.
Here, I explained that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal. However, a setup is not the same as the “real thing,” namely the primary bull market; thus, many “setups” do not materialize and until the secondary reaction closing highs are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.
SIL and GDX closed up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here.
The secondary trend is bearish, which is tantamount to saying that there is an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, for the reasons given here.
Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.
| Data for October 25, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
| Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
| Last close | 10/25/2013 | 175.95 | |
| Current stop level: Secondary reaction low | 165.48 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 4.19% | 12.03% | 2.05% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
| Last close | 10/25/2013 | 13.83 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -9.96% | 30.59% | 45.04% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
| Last close | 10/25/2013 | 26.32 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -8.29% | 18.45% | 29.16% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
