Today has been another day with negligible movements.
All the three indices (Transports, Industrials and S&P) we monitor under Dow Theory closed slightly up for the day. All of them are under the 09/14/2012 highs.
Volume has slightly higher than yesterday’s (which was a mildly down day), so the bullish pattern of volume continues.
Gold closed slightly up and silver slightly down. Their respective ETFs closed both higher for the day, establishing the highest highs since the miners bull market started and, of course, this is a bullish sign.
All in all both the primary trend (the “long one” under Dow Theory with a median duration of 2.5 years) and the secondary one (the “intermediate” one with a median duration of ca. 3 months) are both bullish. For the time being the secondary trend doesn’t deign to oppose the primary trend and gives us a much awaited correction.
All markets are floating under QE.
As to bonds: The feared breakdown hasn’t happened yet.
You know from this post that I’m eagerly waiting for a secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend in order to rise our Dow Theory trailing stops.
All in all, as should be expected under Dow Theory, another day without changes.
Here you have the figures for today:
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/04/2012 | 128.1 | |
| Bull market signaled | 06/29/2012 | 136.1 | |
| Last close | 09/19/2012 | 146.7 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 128.1 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 7.79% | 14.52% | 6.25% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Last close | 09/19/2012 | 171.74 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 149.46 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 6.98% | 14.91% | 7.41% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Last close | 09/19/2012 | 33.56 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 25.63 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 16.04% | 30.94% | 12.84% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Last close | 09/19/2012 | 25.33 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 17.08 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 16.03% | 48.30% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Last close | 09/19/2012 | 54.79 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 39.56 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 14.70% | 38.50% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
