Gold and silver: consolidation or running out of steam?
New “page” dedicated to the saga “Face-off: Schannep versus classical Dow Theory”
Readers of this Dow Theory blog know that I have been writing several posts concerning Schannep’s superiority versus the “Rhea/classical” Dow Theory (which in itself is also very good, as was demonstrated here, here and here).
For ease of use, I have merged all the “Face-off” posts into one with a dedicated link (“page” in blogosphere jargon), which can be found on the top right side of this blog. Here you have the link:
This “page” will be expanded as I advance with my “Face-off” series. In this vein, I plan to post next weekend a new article which focuses on analyzing both Dow Theory flavors during secular bull markets. Readers of this Dow Theory blog stay tuned.
Stocks
The SPY, Transports, and Industrials closed up. Last Friday, the Transports made a lower low unconfirmed by the SPY and Industrials. The longer non-confirmation persists, the higher the odds for the end of the secondary reaction.
The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Since stocks closed up, contracting volume has a bearish connotation, as higher prices were not confirmed by volume. I’d label current volume readings as neutral.
Gold and Silver
SLV, and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.
SIL down and GDX closed up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained hereand here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.
Here you have the figures for the SPY, GDX and SIL which represents the only markets with suggested open long positions.
| Data for September 4, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 06/24/2013 | 157.06 | |
| Bull market signaled | 07/18/2013 | 168.87 | |
| Last close | 09/04/2013 | 165.75 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 157.06 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -1.85% | 5.53% | 7.52% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 15.36 | |
| Last close | 09/04/2013 | 15.4 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 10.59 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 0.26% | 45.42% | 45.04% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/14/2013 | 28.7 | |
| Last close | 09/04/2013 | 28.58 | |
| Current stop level: Primary bear mkt low | 06/26/2013 | 22.22 | |
| Unrealized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.42% | 28.62% | 29.16% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
