Category: Dow Theory

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the primary bear market signal for gold and silver miners ETFs.

posted on: November 21, 2013

As I wrote yesterday, the Dow Theory has just signaled a primary bear market for SIL and GDX (the silver and gold miners ETFs). Here you have a chart depicting recent price action. The red lines are the secondary reaction lows that once they got violated by both ETFs flashed a primary bear market signal. […]

Dow Theory Special issue: Visualising drawdowns

posted on: September 21, 2013

Buy and hold versus Schannep’s Dow Theory An image is worth than thousand words. I have profusely written on this blog about the excellent job Schannep’s Dow Theory does at containing losses. Well, today I won’t give stats. Just three charts (created by courtesy of TradeStation ®) which are self-revealing. The first chart is the […]

Dow Theory special issue: More on the Chinese primary bull market signal

posted on: September 14, 2013

In this post, I explained that a primary bull market had been signaled in Chinese stocks. Let’s look a bit deeper into it. Let’s start by showing an updated chart: Anatomy of a primary bull market signal I will focus on the FXI as it represents 25 big companies. It is the equivalent of focusing […]

Dow Theory Update for September 12: Primary bull market for Chinese stocks signaled

posted on: September 12, 2013

Precious metals deflating In a past post, I dealt with Chinese stocks and the then ongoing primary bear market. My blog stats show me that I get a noticeable number of visitors from China. Thus, I think I should devote some more time to following the Chinese stock market. As I wrote in this post, […]

Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory

posted on: September 6, 2013

Part IV. Performance comparison under secular bull markets. Until now this series “Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory has focused on comparing Schannep’s and “Rhea/classical” Dow Theory irrespective of the secular condition of the market. In part I we set out the premises of our study (so that we conduct an apple to apples […]

Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory

posted on: August 17, 2013

Part III Overall performance figures (2) Let’s continue with our analysis of the Schannep’s version of the Dow Theory versus the “Rhea/classical” one. The first post of this saga, which you can find here, set out the premises of our study, as it is important to do a real “apple to apples” comparison. The second […]

Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory

posted on: August 9, 2013

Part II. Overall performance figures Today we will continue our comparison of the “Rhea/classical” Dow Theory versus the Schannep’s version thereof. Our previous post, which you can find here, set out the premises of our study, as it is important to do a real “apple to apples” comparison. Today, we will begin to evaluate the […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Dissecting GLD and SLV secondary reaction

posted on: July 23, 2013

Yesterday, this Dow Theory blog voiced the existence of a secondary reaction for GLD and SLV, which means that the secondary trend has turned bullish. Here you have the relevant chart. The blue rectangles highlight the ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend. Blue rectangles show ongoing secondary reaction against primary bear market for […]

Dow Theory special Issue: Assessing the current primary bull market signal

posted on: July 19, 2013

If you are a follower of this Dow Theory blog, you know that on July 18, a primary bull market in stocks was signaled. You can find the details here. And here you have the vital chart: On July18, the Transports broke up the last recorded closing highs. A new primary bull market was […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Secular trend versus long term trend

posted on: July 5, 2013

Case in point GOLD Followers of this Dow Theory blog know I am quite skeptical as to investing along the secular trend. My post “Fundamental versus Technical analysis and Dow Theory. Who is right?” highlights the risks pertaining to investing along the secular trend. When I refer to “secular” trend, I mean trends lasting at […]

Are Chinese stocks in a bear market?

posted on: June 25, 2013

Chinese stocks and the Dow Theory According to Zero Hedge, the Shanghai composite entered a bear market on June 24, since now it is down -22% from its February highs. Conventional wisdom has it that a bear market is signaled when stocks go down more than 20%. However, is it necessary for investors to wait […]

After the dust hast settled: Commentary to the Dow Theory primary bear market signal

posted on: June 21, 2013

Its implications for investors As I announced earlier today on this Dow Theory blog, today a primary bear market has been signaled. Those really interested in understanding the intricacies of this primary bear market signal, and the setup that preceded it, are encouraged to go here (for today’s description of the primary bear market signal), […]