Category: Dow Theory

Dow Theory Update for November 18: U.S. bonds under a secondary reaction against the still-existing bearish trend.

posted on: November 18, 2023

General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it here. Thus, TLT tracks longer-term US bonds, whereas IEF tracks […]

Bull or Bear? Unveiling the Current State of Silver with YouTuber Alessio Rastani

posted on: November 13, 2023

In our latest episode, Alessio Rastani and I discuss the current state of the silver market. After rallying from its October lows, silver has experienced a recent pullback, prompting us to analyze whether the silver chart is currently exhibiting bullish or bearish signals. To watch the video, click on the image below.

Decoding Bitcoin’s Path: A Rule of 7 Exploration with Alessio Rastani

posted on: November 9, 2023

Join me in a candid Bitcoin discussion with Alessio Rastani. We explore future price objectives using the Rule of 7 and delve into when market corrections might occur. Check out the full interview by clicking the image below for insightful analysis.

Dow Theory Update for November 11: Setup for a potential Bull market for SLV & GLD completed on November 8

posted on: November 9, 2023

General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. I explained HERE that gold and silver have been in a primary bear market since 6/21/23. After the […]

Exploring Market Headwinds and Future Scenarios with Alessio Rastani

posted on: November 6, 2023

Navigating Stock Market Challenges: Insights from a Recent YouTube Interview I want to thank Alessio Rastani for having me on his YouTube channel. It was a fantastic experience talking about the current state of the stock market. We covered the two significant challenges that could potentially keep the S&P500 from hitting all-time highs in the […]

Dow Theory Analysis Featured in ‘Markets Insider’: Implications of Recent SELL Signal

posted on: October 23, 2023

I thank Matthew Fox for quoting my Dow Theory analysis in “Markets Insider”. As stated in Matthew’s article, on 10/23/2023, the Dow Industrials broke down below its 10/3/23 closing lows, triggering a SELL signal. The table below shows the most relevant price action that led to the 10/23/23 Sell signal. Historical data from 1953 reveals […]

Bonds in Crisis: Discovering Dow Theory’s Healing Touch

posted on: October 12, 2023

Dow Theory’s Prescription for the Bond Debacle Dilemma Due to the surge in interest rates, long-duration bonds have experienced a significant loss of value, amounting to a 50% drawdown. This substantial decline in the so-called safe haven asset class resembles the drawdowns seen in stock indexes, underscoring the fact that unexpected events occur. Investors sometimes […]

Dow Theory Update: The primary bear market in gold and silver reconfirmed on 9/29/2023

posted on: October 7, 2023

Gold and Silver miners ETFs (GLD & SIL) bearish trend unchanged General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind using two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. I explained HERE that gold and silver […]

The Principle of Confirmation can save your skin (II). Example 2: IEF breakup turned into a bull trap.

posted on: September 2, 2023

In my previous post, I explained the principle of confirmation in action when applied to U.S. stock indexes. In this post, we will see its application to bonds. The starting point is the primary bear market that was signaled on 9/20/22 (as explained HERE). Following the 10/24/22 bear market lows, a rally followed that qualified […]

Dow Theory Update for August 31: Gold and Silver may trigger a new primary bull market soon

posted on: August 31, 2023

The setup for a primary bull market was completed on 8/2/23 General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. I explained HERE that gold […]

The Principle of Confirmation can save your skin. Example 1. Dow Transportation breakdown

posted on: August 25, 2023

One fundamental tenet of the Dow Theory holds that the movement of one index, when not confirmed by another, should be disregarded. This principle underscores that a Buy or Sell signal originating from one index, such as surpassing a prior high or breaking down below a previous low, carries no significance if it lacks validation […]

Dow Theory Update for July 22th: Secondary reaction for gold and silver signaled on 7/18/23

posted on: July 22, 2023

Executive summary: The gold and silver (GLD & SLV) have been under a secondary reaction since 7/18/23. The current secondary reaction notwithstanding, the primary trend for gold and silver remains bearish. General Remarks: In this post, I thoroughly explained the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. GOLD AND SILVER […]