Category: Dow Theory

Dow Theory Update for July 20: Heretical Interpetations of the Dow Theory (II)

posted on: July 21, 2023

Not everything promoted as “Dow Theory” is the correct Dow Theory In four past posts (here, here, here, and here I debunked what I believe are incorrect and underperforming interpretations of the Dow Theory. The Dow Industrials’ newer highs have sparked claims from various “Dow Theory experts” that a new Bull market has emerged, which […]

Dow Theory Update for June 3: Setup for a primary bear market signal for GLD and SLV completed on 6/1/23

posted on: June 9, 2023

I am writing before the close of 6/3/23. So readers, beware, things may change. Executive Summary: 1. The primary trend for gold and silver is bullish, the secondary one is bearish, and the setup for a potential primary bear market signal was completed on 6/1/23. The primary trend for gold and silver ETF miners (GDX […]

Dow Theory Update for December 1st: Primary bull market for gold and silver signaled on December 1st.

posted on: December 1, 2022

GDX and SIL in a primary bull market too A new primary bull market has been signaled in precious metals today (12/1/22). Yesterday, silver broke topside its secondary reaction highs. Today, gold confirmed, providing the awaited primary bull market signal. I hope to write soon a comprehensive article explaining the intricacies of this new […]

Dow Theory Update for October 28: The four requirements of a good trend following system

posted on: October 28, 2022

Good (and less good) trend following This is an important post as it will dispel some trend-following myths. I plan to expand this post in the future or write additional posts on this subject. What makes an excellent trend-following system? A good trend-following system must meet four requirements: […]

Dow Theory Update for October 20: Comparing the 1987 and 2020 stock market crashes.

posted on: October 19, 2022

As promised yesterday, I am reproducing and updating one post I penned two years ago comparing the 1987 and 2020 stock market crashes. Yesterday, October 19th was the 35th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. I wrote about it in the past and made clear that the Dow Theory (of any flavor whatsoever) […]

Dow Theory Update for October 19: Revisiting the Oct. 19th 1987 crash (35 years)

posted on: October 19, 2022

Did the Dow Theory help? YES Today, October 19th, is the 35thanniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. So, it is timely to revisit two posts a penned in the past. Today, I reproduce and update one post I wrote exactly 10 years ago. Tomorrow, I will repost the second one. How fared those […]

Dow Theory Update for October 12: Heretical interpretations of the Dow Theory

posted on: October 12, 2022

Not everything promoted as “Dow Theory” is the correct Dow Theory Three years ago, I wrote a saga of three posts explaining what I consider “divergent” interpretations of the Dow Theory, namely interpretations that do not fully reflect what true Dow Theorists like Robert Rhea did, and are likely to result in underperformance. More […]

Dow Theory Update for September 22: Primary bear market for bonds signaled on 9/20/22

posted on: September 22, 2022

No secondary reaction on the horizon General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More […]

Free virtual Event at the MoneyShow. Join me to learn how to build a Dow Theory-based portfolio with ETFs

posted on: September 20, 2022

Mark the date: Sept. 27, 2022 (12:50 pm to 1:20 pm EDT) Join me Live in Person at the Virtual MoneyShow next September 27, 2022 (12:50 pm to 1:20 pm EDT).I will explain how to use the Dow Theory to trade all kinds of ETFs, to build a diversified portfolio with marked drawdown reduction […]

Dow Theory Update for September 19: Halmiton’s market calls (1900-1929) revisited

posted on: September 19, 2022

Does the classical Dow Theory yield positive risk-adjusted returns? The answer is: YES. The article linked below penned by William Goetzmann proves that the market calls made by Dow Theorist Hamilton from 1902 to 1929 beat buy and hold on a risk-adjusted basis. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsessionid=9D2DF4DC55D81DA9EEFADA02B019F9F2?doi=10.1.1.199.1866&rep=rep1&type=pdf The edited chart below extracted from the linked […]

Dow Theory Update for September 13: U.S. bonds flirting with a primary bear market signal

posted on: September 13, 2022

But not there yet! General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it here. […]

Dow Theory Update for September 5: Primary bear market for SLV and GLD reconfirmed on 9/1/22

posted on: September 5, 2022

GOLD AND SILVER A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. As I explained here, the primary and secondary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/30/22. Following the 7/20/22 closing lows for GLD and 7/25/2022 for SLV, a secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market developed. After […]