Category: Investment musings
Dow Theory Update for June 16: When Dow Theorists lose it. Russell or how to put aside the Dow Theory and miss a bull market.
posted on: June 16, 2014
Trends remain unchanged Recently, Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory Letters, considered by some as the dean of the Dow Theorists has written: “A primary bear market in the stock market and the US economy began in 2007. The bear market in the US economy is continuing to this day. But the Federal Reserve […]
Dow Theory Update for June 5: Fact, fiction and Momentum investing
posted on: June 5, 2014
Debunking anti-trend following myths and how the Dow Theory boosts momentum strategies. AQR Capital Management has recently issued a working paper, which confirms something Dow Theorists, and in general trend followers have never doubted: Momentum (trend following) works. Dorsey Wright’s website has published the whole paper, which you can read here. The conclusions […]
Dow Theory Update for June 4: Steen Jakobsen Expects A 30% Stock Market Correction in 2014
posted on: June 4, 2014
Should Dow Theorists panic? Zero Hedge reports that Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, believes that in the second half of 2014 stocks are likely to correct 30%. Such a prediction is based on fundamental reasons, of course. So what should be done? My answer: Nothing. We should do nothing because as Dow […]
Dow Theory Update for June 3: Is it a secular bull market?
posted on: June 3, 2014
We, primary trend Dow Theorists, simply don’t care Ed Yardeni, of the Dr. Ed’s Blog, has just posted that the Dow Theory is bullish. I agree with him. In his post, he states (something which has been defended by Schannep of “thedowtheory.com” long time ago) that we are in the midst of a powerful secular […]
Coiled markets and the Dow Theory: A closer look to TLT and IEF ETFs
posted on: April 28, 2014
In my last post, I wrote about consolidations I see occurring in several markets. Well, let’s take a look at interest rates (TLT and IEF, the 20+ years and 7-10 years bonds ETFs, respectively). It will be a very cursory analysis, as my time remains in short supply. Here you have the vital chart which […]
Dow Theory special issue: Dow Theory Review for 2013.
posted on: January 3, 2014
Putting 2013 in perspective Let’s briefly recap how our Dow Theory analysis fared in 2013. Did we do a good job at determining the primary trend of the markets? This post should be an eye-opener for many skeptics. US Stocks The year began on January 2 with a primary bull market signal, as you can […]
Dow Theory Update for December 26: Stocks make higher highs and primary bull market remains unchallenged
posted on: December 26, 2013
More on the primary bear market anniversary in gold and silver Last Tuesday24th, I wrote about the first anniversary of the primary bear market signal in gold and silver. Today, I’d like to add a couple of random thoughts on this issue. It is good to remember that many experts had been trying unsuccessfully […]
Dow Theory Update for December 24: Happy anniversary (for those standing on the sidelines): Primary bear market signal in gold and silver grows one year old
posted on: December 24, 2013
Stocks make higher highs On December 20, 2012, this Dow Theory blog signaled the existence of a primary bear market in gold and silver, as was explained here. Well, last Friday December 20, 2013, the primary bear market signal grew 1 year old. So happy anniversary for those that heeded the signal. On December 20, […]
Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory
posted on: November 22, 2013
Part V. Performance comparison under secular bear markets This post was overdue. But time constraints prevented me from writing it before. This is the last post of the saga “Face-off: Schannep versus classical Dow Theory”. As you well know, until now, four posts have analyzed the Schannep’s Dow Theory and Rhea’s (classical) Dow Theory […]
Dow Theory Special issue: Visualising drawdowns
posted on: September 21, 2013
Buy and hold versus Schannep’s Dow Theory An image is worth than thousand words. I have profusely written on this blog about the excellent job Schannep’s Dow Theory does at containing losses. Well, today I won’t give stats. Just three charts (created by courtesy of TradeStation ®) which are self-revealing. The first chart is the […]
Dow Theory special issue: More on the Chinese primary bull market signal
posted on: September 14, 2013
In this post, I explained that a primary bull market had been signaled in Chinese stocks. Let’s look a bit deeper into it. Let’s start by showing an updated chart: Anatomy of a primary bull market signal I will focus on the FXI as it represents 25 big companies. It is the equivalent of focusing […]
Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory
posted on: September 6, 2013
Part IV. Performance comparison under secular bull markets. Until now this series “Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory has focused on comparing Schannep’s and “Rhea/classical” Dow Theory irrespective of the secular condition of the market. In part I we set out the premises of our study (so that we conduct an apple to apples […]
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