Ten Thoughts on Trading/Investing 1) Talking about the markets is fine and dandy. However, all investors need to know when to buy and when to sell. Even famed long-term investors sell. Buying without having an idea of the conditions that will trigger a sale is a recipe for disaster. 2) Technical Analysis […]
Dow Theory Update for December 21: Major drawdowns across major countries
posted on: December 21, 2021
From my Linkedin account A reminder of the destructive power of drawdowns. If you look at the book’s photo below, you’ll see that such devastating drawdowns over 20 years reflected a “conservative” 60/40 (60% stocks & 40% bonds) portfolio. As you are well aware, the Dow Theory may come in handy.As an aside, have […]
Dow Theory Update for October 6th: Primary bear market for US bonds signaled on October 5th
posted on: October 6, 2020
The primary trend remains bullish when one appraises the trend of US bonds with a somewhat longer time-frame. I still owe the readers of this Dow Theory blog the promised in-depth explanation of the current secondary reaction in SIL and GDX (the gold and silver miners ETFs). However, Dow Theory’s relevant events pile […]
Dow Theory Update for October 2: Why I favor using two alternative ways of appraising secondary reactions?
posted on: October 2, 2020
In-depth explanation about the current secondary reaction in precious metals coming soon In my last post, I summarily informed that the secondary trend for precious metals had turned bearish. However, I didn’t provide accurate calculations nor any charts. Since the appraisal of secondary reaction is vital for Dow Theorists, as we derive […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: On the Dow to Gold ratio
posted on: June 27, 2020
Is it a good timing device? Since this blog deals with US Stocks and Gold, and prompted by a Subscriber of thedowtheory.com, today I’ll briefly discuss the Dow to Gold ratio and its usefulness as a timing device. You can find an explanation of the Dow to Gold ratio and an excellent interactive chart displaying […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Did Rhea really tell that secondary reactions had to last three weeks? (III)
posted on: June 13, 2020
What about the extent requirement? Reminder: All this talk about secondary reactions is under Rhea’s Dow Theory. Under Schannep’s Dow Theory the appraisal of secondary reactions leaves no room for interpretation (which is a great advantage). However, as Hamilton wrote, the Dow Theory may be applied to non-US-Stock markets, as I do in this blog with […]
Dow Theory Update for May 15th: Bullishness in Precious Metals
posted on: May 16, 2020
Any way we measure secondary reactions both precious metals and their miners ETFs are in a primary bull market US STOCKS Schannep’s Dow Theory (more properly: The Dow Theory for the 21st Century) At 05/12/2020, the primary and secondary trend was bullish since April 6th, 2020 (bull market definition), as was explained in-depth here “Rhea’s /classical” […]
Dow Theory Update for April 25: Setup for a primary bull market signal in US stocks completed
posted on: April 25, 2020
Rhea’s letters (a real gem) available Excursus: I am reading Rhea’s “Dow Theory Comment” which is a collection of the letters he wrote to his subscribers from 1932 to 1934. I could get this rare collectible from Alanpuri Trading. Rhea’s “Dow Theory Comment” is the best companion to his book “The DowTheory”. I am […]
The Theory Update for April 18: Depending on how one appraises the secondary reaction SIL and GDX could be in a primary bull market since April 9th
posted on: April 18, 2020
Secondary (bullish) reaction for US stocks under the Classical Dow Theory I am polishing a relevant post concerning the appraisal of secondary reactions. As you know, the correct assessment of secondary reactions is vital as we derive the primary bull and bear market signals from them. The introductory post can be found here. Please […]
Dow Theory Update for April 8th: New bull market for US stocks signaled on April 6th, 2020
posted on: April 8, 2020
Should we consider the existence of a secondary reaction in precious metals and US interest rates? General remark: Even if you usually only read “US Stocks”, please read the sections concerning precious metals and US interest rates, since they contain several musings which I consider important in order to become more profitable (and drawdown contained) […]
Dow Theory Update for April 4th: Did Rhea really tell that secondary reactions had to last three weeks?
posted on: April 4, 2020
A study on the proper appraisal of secondary reactions as taught by Rhea I am re-reading (for 10th, 11th time?) Rhea’s book “The Dow Theory,” and I am unearthing many gems. Those gems relate to the thorny issue of appraising secondary reactions. The proper ascertainment of a secondary reaction is vital. The lows of secondary […]
Dow Theory Update for March 28th: Watch the S&P 500. If it rallied a little bit more a bull market would be signaled
posted on: March 28, 2020
Trends unchanged for all the markets I cover US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory The primary trend is bearish since March 9th (penetration of the lows of the current secondary reaction) or even February 25th (alternative exit based on the penetration of the lows of the previously completed secondary reaction), as explained here. Of course, the […]
