Category: Investment musings

Back to “divergent” interpretations of the Dow Theory

posted on: May 27, 2024

Setting Dow Theory concepts straight amidst so much “fake” Dow Theory. Recent Transport weakness relative to the Dow Industrials prompted many “experts” to proclaim that this is a bear market signal. Let’s clarify the concepts. First, divergence and lack of confirmation, while similar, are not the same and have different implications. Divergence entails one […]

Alessio Rastani Features TheDowTheory.com: Update on the technical landscape for Bitcoin and Ethereum

posted on: April 29, 2024

Alessio Rastani has a knack for making excellent and content-rich videos. As a follower of Alessio’s work for many years, I can attest that he tends to be on the right side of the markets most of the time. In his latest video, he delves into the current technical landscape of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I’m […]

Exploring Effective Investment Strategies with Giacomo Mondonico on Hustle Hub

posted on: March 20, 2024

Learn How the Dow Theory Can Elevate Your Investment Game Being featured on Giacomo Mondonico’s YouTube channel, Hustle Hub, was an absolute pleasure. In our first interview episode, we explored various investment strategies, carefully assessing their effectiveness. Through our analysis, we found that the Dow Theory stands out as a reliable approach for understanding market […]

Critical Stock Market Update: The classical Dow Theory signaled a bull market on 2/8/24

posted on: February 13, 2024

Reminder: The Dow Theory for the 21st Century provides even more precise timing for the stock market I will explain the latest “classical” Dow Theory buy signal in this post. I must state that I don’t trade this kind of Dow Theory, despite its good record of outperformance and drawdown reduction vs. Buy and Hold. […]

Navigating the new normal: Why Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind the S&P 500

posted on: January 24, 2024

The Small-Cap Conundrum: Is the Glory Days of Outperformance Over? Small-Cap Stocks Lag Behind S&P 500. Over the past five years, small-cap stocks have consistently underperformed the S&P 500, as illustrated in the chart below. While occasional bursts of outperformance may occur, I’m skeptical that small caps will revert to their historical pattern of consistently […]

How a Falling ERP Isn’t the Bearish Sign You Thought It Was

posted on: January 23, 2024

Dispelling another investment myth Is a falling Equity/Risk Premium (ERP) bearish for stocks? No, it isn’t. Jay Kaeppel (HERE) debunks another investment fallacy by showing that a falling ERP does not influence the stock market. So, a relatively low yield of stocks vs. bonds has zero predictive power of future performance. Actually, as shown in […]

Is the U.S. stock market overvalued?

posted on: January 18, 2024

Perhaps it is, but there aren’t many alternatives left I’m not a staunch supporter of fundamentals, but if there’s one I truly endorse, it’s economic freedom as a predictor of future prosperity. The freer the market, the more prosperous the nation, and its stock market mirrors this. Therefore, it doesn’t make sense to me to […]

Use and misuse of the Dow Theory

posted on: January 13, 2024

Not everything touted as Dow Theory is the real thing. No technical analysis system is more abused than the Dow Theory. Some individuals peddle their eccentric notions under its banner to profit from its respectable track record, misrepresenting them as Dow Theory to make a catchy headline. A recent case involves the confusion between the […]

Bull or Bear? Unveiling the Current State of Silver with YouTuber Alessio Rastani

posted on: November 13, 2023

In our latest episode, Alessio Rastani and I discuss the current state of the silver market. After rallying from its October lows, silver has experienced a recent pullback, prompting us to analyze whether the silver chart is currently exhibiting bullish or bearish signals. To watch the video, click on the image below.

Decoding Bitcoin’s Path: A Rule of 7 Exploration with Alessio Rastani

posted on: November 9, 2023

Join me in a candid Bitcoin discussion with Alessio Rastani. We explore future price objectives using the Rule of 7 and delve into when market corrections might occur. Check out the full interview by clicking the image below for insightful analysis.

Exploring Market Headwinds and Future Scenarios with Alessio Rastani

posted on: November 6, 2023

Navigating Stock Market Challenges: Insights from a Recent YouTube Interview I want to thank Alessio Rastani for having me on his YouTube channel. It was a fantastic experience talking about the current state of the stock market. We covered the two significant challenges that could potentially keep the S&P500 from hitting all-time highs in the […]

Dow Theory Analysis Featured in ‘Markets Insider’: Implications of Recent SELL Signal

posted on: October 23, 2023

I thank Matthew Fox for quoting my Dow Theory analysis in “Markets Insider”. As stated in Matthew’s article, on 10/23/2023, the Dow Industrials broke down below its 10/3/23 closing lows, triggering a SELL signal. The table below shows the most relevant price action that led to the 10/23/23 Sell signal. Historical data from 1953 reveals […]