Dow Theory Special Issue: Some introspection. Let’s go back to the basics in order to make the next leap forward (I)
posted on: February 15, 2020
Musings, and more musings before the meat This is a long post which has been divided into two. It has really taken lots of introspection, as it crystallized when being alone in the countryside enjoying the sights of some wonderful lush hills dotted with grazing cattle. This post is a roadmap for the future tasks […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right (III)
posted on: January 10, 2020
Composite results of taking both long and shorts and introducing a Dow Theory based secular trend filter In the previous two posts of this “Hamilton” saga (hereand here) I analyzed what would have happened if I had taken either longs or shorts as per the primary bull and bear market signals given by the Dow […]
Primary Trends unchanged It has been almost one month without updating about the trends for US stocks, precious metals, etc. My silence was due to the lack of change of trends, and to my having written several posts deepening vital concepts of the Dow Theory; one on capitulation whose saga I hope to complete by […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right (II)
posted on: December 14, 2019
Applying the Dow Theory to oil markets while exploring the short side. Towards building a Dow Theory portfolio In the first post of this new Hamilton saga, I applied the Dow Theory to the oil sector. I took the pair formed by USO (crude oil) and XLE (oil stocks) ETFs. I analyzed the “long” […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right
posted on: December 6, 2019
Applying the Dow Theory to oil markets and towards building a Dow Theory portfolio Hamilton was Charles Dow understudy, and writer of the book “The Stock Market Barometer” As I have written here, Hamilton was of the opinion that the Dow Theory may be applied to other markets. Based on that insight, when I started […]
Dow Theory Update for November 20: Why aren’t out there any Dow Theory based hedge funds?
posted on: November 20, 2019
I don’t like stock’s action as per the “Classical Dow Theory” Breakout systems, moving averages and the Dow Theory: Hamilton wrote that the Dow Theory could also be applied to any asset traded in an organized (and free) market. This is why when I started this blog some 7 years ago, I decided to appraise […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (VI)
posted on: November 16, 2019
When and how much to buy. Transitioning from a 25% to a fully invested position As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_11.html Well, I finally squeezed some time out of my agenda to pen another post concerning Schannep’s capitulation indicator. Today we will […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (V)
posted on: July 11, 2019
Measuring the risk when catching falling knives. So great? As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html Since capitulation is a mean reversing tool, and, by definition, we don’t wait until the trend shows signs of reversing, we are catching the proverbial “falling knife”. This means […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation The ultimate bottom indicator (IV)
posted on: July 4, 2019
Shortening of the time requirement for secondary reactions As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html As I explained in the past, “capitulation” is a mean reversing tool. When markets get severely oversold, we derogate from trend following, and bet for a trend reversal. The track record […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Which markets are better suited to the Dow Theory (and Trend following in general) and the reason why
posted on: June 26, 2019
The power of trends and why it is not wise to disregard a Dow Theory signal based on the belief that the market is already overstretched. This is another post that I was written on June 19th at Nashville’s airport while being stranded due to bad weather conditions. However, it has been “matured” and edited […]
Dow theory Update for April 13rd: Once again back to divergent interpretations of the Dow Theory
posted on: April 13, 2019
Trends unchanged for stocks, gold, silver and their miners My new post concerning Schannep’s capitulation indicator will have to wait as more “divergent interpretations of the Dow Theory” (more than I could ever conceive) pop up. I have already analyzed some questionable interpretations of the Dow Theory here and here. Hence, the next post […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (II)
posted on: March 22, 2019
Definition of capitulation. Betting for a mean reversion We continue with our saga concerning “capitulation”. I feel this saga is going to keep me busy for quite some time. Here you have the link to the first post. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html Capitulation is a bottom detector tool devised by Jack Schannep. Thus, capitulation is by nature mean […]
