Dow Theory Update for March 21st: Secular trend for US stocks turned bearish on March 21st, 2020
posted on: March 21, 2020
Primary and secondary trends unchanged for US stocks, US interest rates, precious metals and their ETFs miners unchanged US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory The primary trend is bearish since March 9th (penetration of the lows of the current secondary reaction) or even February 25th (alternative exit based on the penetration of the lows of […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Back to Divergent interpretations of the “classical” Dow Theory (IV)
posted on: March 16, 2020
Primary and secondary trends unchanged for US stocks, precious metals and their miners ETFs and US interest rates When I thought that all was said and done concerning this saga (see here, here and here). Once again, I feel that some remarks concerning what I consider to be a quite “nonreactive” interpretation of the […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Some introspection. Let’s go back to the basics in order to make the next leap forward (II)
posted on: March 7, 2020
Comparing Schannep’s Dow Theory to 21 years of buy and hold As I wrote in my last post, there are many projects expanding the Dow Theory in the pipeline. However, before we embark upon discovering new uses for the Dow Theory, we’d better remain on solid ground. To this end, we are going to compare […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Some introspection. Let’s go back to the basics in order to make the next leap forward (I)
posted on: February 15, 2020
Musings, and more musings before the meat This is a long post which has been divided into two. It has really taken lots of introspection, as it crystallized when being alone in the countryside enjoying the sights of some wonderful lush hills dotted with grazing cattle. This post is a roadmap for the future tasks […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right (III)
posted on: January 10, 2020
Composite results of taking both long and shorts and introducing a Dow Theory based secular trend filter In the previous two posts of this “Hamilton” saga (hereand here) I analyzed what would have happened if I had taken either longs or shorts as per the primary bull and bear market signals given by the Dow […]
Primary Trends unchanged It has been almost one month without updating about the trends for US stocks, precious metals, etc. My silence was due to the lack of change of trends, and to my having written several posts deepening vital concepts of the Dow Theory; one on capitulation whose saga I hope to complete by […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right (II)
posted on: December 14, 2019
Applying the Dow Theory to oil markets while exploring the short side. Towards building a Dow Theory portfolio In the first post of this new Hamilton saga, I applied the Dow Theory to the oil sector. I took the pair formed by USO (crude oil) and XLE (oil stocks) ETFs. I analyzed the “long” […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right
posted on: December 6, 2019
Applying the Dow Theory to oil markets and towards building a Dow Theory portfolio Hamilton was Charles Dow understudy, and writer of the book “The Stock Market Barometer” As I have written here, Hamilton was of the opinion that the Dow Theory may be applied to other markets. Based on that insight, when I started […]
Dow Theory Update for November 20: Why aren’t out there any Dow Theory based hedge funds?
posted on: November 20, 2019
I don’t like stock’s action as per the “Classical Dow Theory” Breakout systems, moving averages and the Dow Theory: Hamilton wrote that the Dow Theory could also be applied to any asset traded in an organized (and free) market. This is why when I started this blog some 7 years ago, I decided to appraise […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (VI)
posted on: November 16, 2019
When and how much to buy. Transitioning from a 25% to a fully invested position As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_11.html Well, I finally squeezed some time out of my agenda to pen another post concerning Schannep’s capitulation indicator. Today we will […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (V)
posted on: July 11, 2019
Measuring the risk when catching falling knives. So great? As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html Since capitulation is a mean reversing tool, and, by definition, we don’t wait until the trend shows signs of reversing, we are catching the proverbial “falling knife”. This means […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation The ultimate bottom indicator (IV)
posted on: July 4, 2019
Shortening of the time requirement for secondary reactions As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html As I explained in the past, “capitulation” is a mean reversing tool. When markets get severely oversold, we derogate from trend following, and bet for a trend reversal. The track record […]
