Dow Theory Special Issue: Does it make sense to short with the Dow Theory?
posted on: July 8, 2016
Primary and Secondary Trends unchanged This post is my answer to Algyros, a faithful follower of this blog. Basically, he asked about shorting with the Dow Theory. Does it make sense? My first answer read as follows (link to it here): I’d summarize my opinion concerning shorting as follows: • Primary bear markets last less […]
Dow Theory Special issue: How good is Schannep’s Dow Theory at picking bottoms and exiting tops?
posted on: July 1, 2016
Trends unchanged on stocks and precious metals. On many occasions, and based on my observations of Schannep’s Dow Theory primary bull and bear market signals, I have written that buy signals tend to be signaled at roughly 5-7% from the lows (bottom) and sell signals at around 5-7% from the highs (top). I must confess […]
Dow Theory Update for June 27: Primary bear market unambiguously signaled for US stocks on Friday 24
posted on: June 27, 2016
Trends for precious metals and miners unchanged This post has been written and matured during the weekend. It is being posted some 25 minutes after the open of Monday 27. US STOCKS Well, the markets have cast their ballot too. Today, Friday, June 24th, the S&P 500 has closed 3 points below its May 19th […]
Dow Theory Update for May 9: McKinsey Global Institute’s report and what to expect of the Dow Theory over the next 20 years
posted on: May 9, 2016
US stocks flirting with secondary reaction Dow Theory Update for May 9: McKinsey Global Institute’s report and what to expect of the Dow Theory over the next 20 years. US stocks flirting with secondary reaction US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend (as determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory) is bullish, as explained here and here. […]
Dow Theory Update for April 14: More about the primary bull market signal for stocks
posted on: April 14, 2016
Trends for gold and silver and their stocks unchanged This is going to be a long post. Please bear with me, and take your time to absorb it. Since writing this post has taken a good deal of focus and energy, I’d likely take a pause in the coming days (unless trends change). Yesterday, a […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (IV)
posted on: March 10, 2016
Will future secular bear markets allow the Dow Theory to outperform buy and hold? Will future secular bear markets be so obliging to the Dow Theory as past ones? The preceding two posts of this saga (here and here) dealt with the Dow Theory performance under secular bear markets. I concluded that I thought that […]
And why most investors should avoid them Some weeks ago, one reader of this Dow Theory blog alleged that the focus on “timing” the market, and hence avoiding drawdowns was not a good idea, since in the long run US stocks (or at least US stock indices) end up being winners. Furthermore, no dividends are […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (III)
posted on: February 8, 2016
Additional remarks concerning performance under secular bear markets As a consequence of my second post concerning the Dow Theory stress-test, Alpha Dow posted this comment: Hi there. First of all — I love the site. I’m an 18yr disciple of Dow Theory and a subscriber to Schannep and a practitioner myself. There is a dearth […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (II)
posted on: February 2, 2016
Performance under secular bear markets On December 7th, 2015 I started what is going to be a new “saga”. Its aim is to put the Dow Theory under a “stress-test”. We will try to think out of the box and imagine adverse scenarios which hitherto have not occurred yet. How would the Dow Theory perform […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Very long term trend turned bearish as per the Dow Theory when applied using weekly bars
posted on: January 19, 2016
Dismal technical picture In my post of September 7, 2015 I said that, the August scare notwithstanding, the very long term trend as gauged by weekly bars remained bullish and that the recent decline that started in July and bottomed on August was merely a secondary reaction against the long term bullish trend. This article […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under stress-test (I)
posted on: December 7, 2015
A new Dow Theory saga is being started Introduction While followers of this Dow Theory blog may be inclined to think that I am a true believer in the Dow Theory, and hence, to some extent blinded and unable to see its flaws (if any), truth is that I am skeptical of everything when it […]
Dow Theory Update for October 24: Is the current primary bull market signal for US stocks doomed to fail?
posted on: October 24, 2015
Trends for stocks, gold silver and their miners unchanged. I have not posted in the last few days for the following reasons: a) I was traveling so time was extremely scarce b) Trends have not changed. c) I am re-reading Schannep’s book for the 10thtime. I am in a period of introspection unearthing more jewels […]
