Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (II)
posted on: February 2, 2016
Performance under secular bear markets On December 7th, 2015 I started what is going to be a new “saga”. Its aim is to put the Dow Theory under a “stress-test”. We will try to think out of the box and imagine adverse scenarios which hitherto have not occurred yet. How would the Dow Theory perform […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Very long term trend turned bearish as per the Dow Theory when applied using weekly bars
posted on: January 19, 2016
Dismal technical picture In my post of September 7, 2015 I said that, the August scare notwithstanding, the very long term trend as gauged by weekly bars remained bullish and that the recent decline that started in July and bottomed on August was merely a secondary reaction against the long term bullish trend. This article […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under stress-test (I)
posted on: December 7, 2015
A new Dow Theory saga is being started Introduction While followers of this Dow Theory blog may be inclined to think that I am a true believer in the Dow Theory, and hence, to some extent blinded and unable to see its flaws (if any), truth is that I am skeptical of everything when it […]
Dow Theory Update for October 24: Is the current primary bull market signal for US stocks doomed to fail?
posted on: October 24, 2015
Trends for stocks, gold silver and their miners unchanged. I have not posted in the last few days for the following reasons: a) I was traveling so time was extremely scarce b) Trends have not changed. c) I am re-reading Schannep’s book for the 10thtime. I am in a period of introspection unearthing more jewels […]
Dow Theory Update for October 8: Primary bull market signaled for US Stocks on Oct. 7
posted on: October 8, 2015
At least theoretically, as it has been a very dubious signal. The S&P 500 closing high of September 16th, 2015 was 1995.31. Yesterday, October 7th, the S&P 500 closed above such a closing high by closing at 1995.83. Thus, the S&P 500 managed by a hair to exceed the closing highs of the secondary reaction, […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Lessons learned from the Chinese stock market crash (II)
posted on: September 14, 2015
How to exit when the Dow Theory refuses to setup “orderly” primary bear market signals. Recently, I wrote about the primary bear market signal for Chinese stocks. As you well know this primary bear market signal came much too late, if we are to judge from the percentage decline from the top to the exit […]
Dow Theory special issue: Why the Dow Theory uses daily bars, not weekly and for good reason
posted on: September 7, 2015
Primary and secondary trends for stocks, gold and silver and their ETFs miners unchanged. Travis, one reader of this blog, recently posted a comment whereby he asked why I use daily bars instead of weekly bars to determine what allegedly is the long-term trend. What follows is my answer, which deserves a post of its […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Primary bear market for Chinese stocks signaled last Friday 21st
posted on: August 24, 2015
And some thoughts concerning US Stocks… Market relevant events continue to pile up, while time remains in short supply. Last Friday, FXI broke below the lows of the last secondary reaction (which were made on October, 10th, 2014), and, accordingly confirmed HAO, which had already done so on July 7th, 2015. Confirmed lower lows, means […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Was it a primary bear market signal under the classical Dow Theory?
posted on: August 21, 2015
Bank of America seems to think so As reported by Zero Hedge, BofA seems to have detected a primary bear market signal by applying the Rhea/classical Dow Theory, as you can read here. However, I have my qualms as to the correctness of such a signal under the classical Dow Theory. On the other hand, […]
Dow Theory Update for July 29: Lessons (re)learned from the precious metals universe and Chinese stocks
posted on: July 29, 2015
Trends remain unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html All indices rallied more than 3% off their July 8th closing lows. So now either: a) Stocks jointly violate their secondary reaction lows, in […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Maximum Drawdown and average returns for the Dow Theory versus buy and hold
posted on: June 29, 2015
Trends remain unchanged. This post is the detailed answer to one question posed by a follower of this Dow Theory blog. Hope it will serve Algyros and other readers to further a deeper understanding of the Dow Theory. Here is question: “I was wondering if you had CAGR and Max DD backtested information for your […]
Dow Theory Update for June 24: Gary Antonacci on stops. Let’ s heed the words of a sage
posted on: June 24, 2015
Trends remain unchanged There are three names that shine when it comes to (a) investment practical acumen; (b) avoid BS. These names are (in alphabetical order): 1) Antonacci. http://www.dualmomentum.net/ 2) Moening http://stateofthemarkets.com/ 3) Schannep https://thedowtheory.com/ I have praised Antonacci’s work in the past (here and here). He has recently penned a new article entitled “Momentum […]
