Category: Insights

Dow Theory Special Issue: Some introspection. Let’s go back to the basics in order to make the next leap forward (I)

posted on: February 15, 2020

Musings, and more musings before the meat This is a long post which has been divided into two. It has really taken lots of introspection, as it crystallized when being alone in the countryside enjoying the sights of some wonderful lush hills dotted with grazing cattle. This post is a roadmap for the future tasks […]

Dow Theory Update for February 7: Secondary reaction for US stocks ended yesterday, February 6th

posted on: February 7, 2020

Setup for a primary bull market in SLV and GLD explained US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory The primary trend, signalled on 10/25/2019, remains bullish as was explained here and here. On February 5th, the S&P 500 bettered its last recorded primary bull market highs unconfirmed. On February 6th, the Industrials confirmed. Under Schannep’s […]

Dow Theory Update for February 1st: Secondary reaction for US stocks signalled yesterday

posted on: February 1, 2020

Primary and secondary trends unchanged for precious metals, their miners and interest rates US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory Eight days ago I wrote that I was seeing weakness in the internals of the market (not reflected in the indices). I also wrote that such weakness was harbinger of a change of trends at least […]

Dow Theory Update for January 24: Could the current bull swing for US stocks stall soon?

posted on: January 24, 2020

Primary and secondary trends unchanged for all the markets I follow US STOCKS By way of exception some non-Dow Theory musings concerning the trend for US stocks. US stock indices have making been higher highs and technically, and particularly according to the Dow Theory, the primary trend is strongly bullish with no secondary reaction in […]

Dow Theory Update for January 16: The Transports make higher highs thereby officially ending secondary reaction as per the Classical Dow Theory

posted on: January 16, 2020

Trends unchanged for precious metals and in Schannep’s Dow Theory. US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory The primary and secondary trend turned bullish on October 25th, 2019, as was explained here and here. The three US stock indices continue making higher highs, now with the Transports joining the parade. As of this writing we are […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right (III)

posted on: January 10, 2020

Composite results of taking both long and shorts and introducing a Dow Theory based secular trend filter In the previous two posts of this “Hamilton” saga (hereand here) I analyzed what would have happened if I had taken either longs or shorts as per the primary bull and bear market signals given by the Dow […]

Dow Theory Update for January 6: Gold and silver under a secondary reaction against the primary bear market

posted on: January 6, 2020

US stocks indices remain solidly bullish After the Christmas break, here I am back again. I am writing before the close so things might change. Readers beware. US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory The primary and secondary trend turned bullish on October 25th, 2019, as was explained here and here. The Industrials and the S&P […]

Dow Theory Update for December 17: Recap for 2019

posted on: December 17, 2019

Primary Trends unchanged It has been almost one month without updating about the trends for US stocks, precious metals, etc. My silence was due to the lack of change of trends, and to my having written several posts deepening vital concepts of the Dow Theory; one on capitulation whose saga I hope to complete by […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right (II)

posted on: December 14, 2019

Applying the Dow Theory to oil markets while exploring the short side. Towards building a Dow Theory portfolio In the first post of this new Hamilton saga, I applied the Dow Theory to the oil sector. I took the pair formed by USO (crude oil) and XLE (oil stocks) ETFs. I analyzed the “long” […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right

posted on: December 6, 2019

Applying the Dow Theory to oil markets and towards building a Dow Theory portfolio Hamilton was Charles Dow understudy, and writer of the book “The Stock Market Barometer” As I have written here, Hamilton was of the opinion that the Dow Theory may be applied to other markets. Based on that insight, when I started […]

Dow Theory Update for November 20: Why aren’t out there any Dow Theory based hedge funds?

posted on: November 20, 2019

I don’t like stock’s action as per the “Classical Dow Theory” Breakout systems, moving averages and the Dow Theory: Hamilton wrote that the Dow Theory could also be applied to any asset traded in an organized (and free) market. This is why when I started this blog some 7 years ago, I decided to appraise […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (VI)

posted on: November 16, 2019

When and how much to buy. Transitioning from a 25% to a fully invested position As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_11.html Well, I finally squeezed some time out of my agenda to pen another post concerning Schannep’s capitulation indicator. Today we will […]