Category: Insights

Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right (II)

posted on: December 14, 2019

Applying the Dow Theory to oil markets while exploring the short side. Towards building a Dow Theory portfolio In the first post of this new Hamilton saga, I applied the Dow Theory to the oil sector. I took the pair formed by USO (crude oil) and XLE (oil stocks) ETFs. I analyzed the “long” […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right

posted on: December 6, 2019

Applying the Dow Theory to oil markets and towards building a Dow Theory portfolio Hamilton was Charles Dow understudy, and writer of the book “The Stock Market Barometer” As I have written here, Hamilton was of the opinion that the Dow Theory may be applied to other markets. Based on that insight, when I started […]

Dow Theory Update for November 20: Why aren’t out there any Dow Theory based hedge funds?

posted on: November 20, 2019

I don’t like stock’s action as per the “Classical Dow Theory” Breakout systems, moving averages and the Dow Theory: Hamilton wrote that the Dow Theory could also be applied to any asset traded in an organized (and free) market. This is why when I started this blog some 7 years ago, I decided to appraise […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (VI)

posted on: November 16, 2019

When and how much to buy. Transitioning from a 25% to a fully invested position As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_11.html Well, I finally squeezed some time out of my agenda to pen another post concerning Schannep’s capitulation indicator. Today we will […]

Dow Theory Update for November 9: Primary bear market for gold and silver signaled on November 8th, 2019

posted on: November 9, 2019

Likely secondary reaction in US treasuries This is going to be a long post. It took time and dedication to write it, and to fully apprehend its implications (especially for precious metals and interest rates), one should take also time to read it. No pain, no gain. US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend […]

Dow Theory Update for October 31: Dissecting the new primary bull market signal for US stocks

posted on: October 31, 2019

Setup for primary bear market completed for precious metals and their ETF miners US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend turned bullish on October 25th, 2019, as was explained here Stocks were under a primary bear market (more about it here). Such a primary bear market did not have long legs and no sooner had […]

Dow Theory Update for October 28: Primary bull market for US stocks signaled on October 25th, 2019

posted on: October 28, 2019

Maybe, and I say, maybe, precious metals and their stock miners ETFs have set up for a primary bear market signal Sorry, but, as usual, time in very short supply. If I can, I’ll try to pen an in-depth post in the coming days. For now, please be advised that on Thursday 24th, 2019 the […]

Dow Theory Update for October 23:Indecision for US stocks

posted on: October 23, 2019

Precious metal under full-fledged secondary reaction against primary bull market US STOCKS A primary bear market for US stocks was signaled on August 14th, 2019 as explained here. A secondary reaction against the primary bear market was signaled on August 30, as explained here. The setup for a primary bull market (rally after the secondary […]

Dow Theory special issue: which indices to use and the appraisal of secondary reactions under the Dow Theory

posted on: October 19, 2019

Answer to an email from a reader This post is a dedicated response to the email I received from one follower of this blog. I quote the email and my answer in red. To respect privacy I have deleted the name of its author. I feel the questions were well grounded, and hence readers may […]

Dow Theory Update for October 11: Gauging the current situation with precious metals

posted on: October 11, 2019

Trends unchanged for US stocks Today is a post that took a good deal of analysis and time to write. Take your time to fully digest it. US STOCKS A primary bear market for US stocks was signaled on August 14th, 2019 as explained here. A secondary reaction against the primary bear market was […]

Dow Theory Update for September 25: Setup for primary bull market signal completed for US stocks on 09/19/2019

posted on: September 25, 2019

Primary and secondary trends for precious metals unchanged A primary bear market for US stocks was signaled on August 14th, 2019 as explained here. A secondary reaction against the primary bear market was signaled on August 30, as explained here. On 09/19/2019 the Transports declined more than 3% from their secondary reaction closing highs. On […]

Dow Theory Update for September 16: US Stocks close to signaling primary bull market

posted on: September 16, 2019

Trends for precious metals unchanged First of all, I apologize for not having written since August 30. I still owe two posts: One concerning the analysis of the last primary bull market signal, and one concerning the next issue of the capitulation saga. Time has been in extremely short supply in the last few weeks. […]