Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for January 16: The Transports make higher highs thereby officially ending secondary reaction as per the Classical Dow Theory

posted on: January 16, 2020

Trends unchanged for precious metals and in Schannep’s Dow Theory. US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory The primary and secondary trend turned bullish on October 25th, 2019, as was explained here and here. The three US stock indices continue making higher highs, now with the Transports joining the parade. As of this writing we are […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right (III)

posted on: January 10, 2020

Composite results of taking both long and shorts and introducing a Dow Theory based secular trend filter In the previous two posts of this “Hamilton” saga (hereand here) I analyzed what would have happened if I had taken either longs or shorts as per the primary bull and bear market signals given by the Dow […]

Dow Theory Update for January 6: Gold and silver under a secondary reaction against the primary bear market

posted on: January 6, 2020

US stocks indices remain solidly bullish After the Christmas break, here I am back again. I am writing before the close so things might change. Readers beware. US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory The primary and secondary trend turned bullish on October 25th, 2019, as was explained here and here. The Industrials and the S&P […]

Dow Theory Update for December 17: Recap for 2019

posted on: December 17, 2019

Primary Trends unchanged It has been almost one month without updating about the trends for US stocks, precious metals, etc. My silence was due to the lack of change of trends, and to my having written several posts deepening vital concepts of the Dow Theory; one on capitulation whose saga I hope to complete by […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right (II)

posted on: December 14, 2019

Applying the Dow Theory to oil markets while exploring the short side. Towards building a Dow Theory portfolio In the first post of this new Hamilton saga, I applied the Dow Theory to the oil sector. I took the pair formed by USO (crude oil) and XLE (oil stocks) ETFs. I analyzed the “long” […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Hamilton’s insight that the Dow Theory may be applied to many markets seems to be right

posted on: December 6, 2019

Applying the Dow Theory to oil markets and towards building a Dow Theory portfolio Hamilton was Charles Dow understudy, and writer of the book “The Stock Market Barometer” As I have written here, Hamilton was of the opinion that the Dow Theory may be applied to other markets. Based on that insight, when I started […]

Dow Theory Update for November 20: Why aren’t out there any Dow Theory based hedge funds?

posted on: November 20, 2019

I don’t like stock’s action as per the “Classical Dow Theory” Breakout systems, moving averages and the Dow Theory: Hamilton wrote that the Dow Theory could also be applied to any asset traded in an organized (and free) market. This is why when I started this blog some 7 years ago, I decided to appraise […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (VI)

posted on: November 16, 2019

When and how much to buy. Transitioning from a 25% to a fully invested position As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_11.html Well, I finally squeezed some time out of my agenda to pen another post concerning Schannep’s capitulation indicator. Today we will […]

Dow Theory Update for November 9: Primary bear market for gold and silver signaled on November 8th, 2019

posted on: November 9, 2019

Likely secondary reaction in US treasuries This is going to be a long post. It took time and dedication to write it, and to fully apprehend its implications (especially for precious metals and interest rates), one should take also time to read it. No pain, no gain. US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend […]

Dow Theory Update for October 31: Dissecting the new primary bull market signal for US stocks

posted on: October 31, 2019

Setup for primary bear market completed for precious metals and their ETF miners US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend turned bullish on October 25th, 2019, as was explained here Stocks were under a primary bear market (more about it here). Such a primary bear market did not have long legs and no sooner had […]

Dow Theory Update for October 28: Primary bull market for US stocks signaled on October 25th, 2019

posted on: October 28, 2019

Maybe, and I say, maybe, precious metals and their stock miners ETFs have set up for a primary bear market signal Sorry, but, as usual, time in very short supply. If I can, I’ll try to pen an in-depth post in the coming days. For now, please be advised that on Thursday 24th, 2019 the […]

Dow Theory Update for October 23:Indecision for US stocks

posted on: October 23, 2019

Precious metal under full-fledged secondary reaction against primary bull market US STOCKS A primary bear market for US stocks was signaled on August 14th, 2019 as explained here. A secondary reaction against the primary bear market was signaled on August 30, as explained here. The setup for a primary bull market (rally after the secondary […]