Category: Insights

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (VII)

posted on: September 9, 2016

When most ruled-based trading ceases to work, the Dow Theory continues to perform In this post of my stress-test saga, I made clear that we are currently living a real “stress-test”. Current market conditions are not the best for the Dow Theory. Narrow ranges of less than 15% are detrimental (but not lethal) to the […]

Dow Theory Update for September 7: The Transports confirm the primary bull market signal of August 11

posted on: September 7, 2016

The Transports remain, though, below the previous bull market high of 8109.19 US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend is bullish as explained hereand here The primary bull market signal of August 11th was given without the Transports’ confirmation (only the SPY and Industrials broke up their secondary reaction highs). Today the Transports have closed […]

Dow Theory Update for September 6: Silver and Gold, and their ETF miners, under a secondary reaction

posted on: September 6, 2016

Trends unchanged for stocks I am writing before the close. US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend is bullish as explained here and here Recent declines did not fulfill the “time” requirement for a secondary reaction. I don’t even bother to calculate the “extent” requirement. GOLD AND SILVER The primary trend is bullish (Dow Theory […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (VI)

posted on: September 2, 2016

Fractality at work. Narrow ranges tend to contain narrow secondary reactions This post is to be understood as an “addenda” to my yesterday’s post. I feel the following thoughts further strengthen my belief concerning the sturdiness of the Schannep’s Dow Theory under narrow range conditions. Thus, the losses resulting from a prolonged ranging environment could […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (V)

posted on: September 1, 2016

What happens to the Dow Theory when the market enters into “fibrillation” (Narrow ranges)? Looking into the future The following conclusions may be derived from my first post concerning the Dow Theory and narrow ranges: 1) Historically, the maximum drawdown caused by cumulative losing trades amounted to less than 19%. 2) This drawdown was not […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (IV)

posted on: August 29, 2016

What happens to the Dow Theory when the market enters into “fibrillation” (Narrow ranges)? We continue our saga of looking at the Dow Theory from all possible angles (specially the stressful ones). Narrow ranges are the plague to trend followers. While the Dow Theory by integrating the time and extent element is less prone than […]

Dow Theory Update for August 20: Recent declines in Gold and Silver (and their ETF miners) do not qualify as a secondary reaction yet

posted on: August 20, 2016

Future important post When I find time (oh time!!!), I’d like to write about the market conditions where the Dow Theory (and specially Schannep’s Dow Theory) might “suffer” and underperform buy and hold. In previous studies (see here), I have shown that the Dow Theory tends to underperform buy and hold when markets display nice […]

Dow Theory Update for August 15: More on the primary bull market signal of August 11, 2016

posted on: August 15, 2016

Trends in precious metals universe unchanged US STOCKS As it was reported here, last August 11th a primary bull market was signaled according to Schannep’s Dow Theory. Here you have un updated chart. Schannep’s Dow Theory signaled primary bull market on August 11 It is important to note that the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory […]

Dow Theory Update for August 12: Primary bull market signaled yesterday

posted on: August 12, 2016

I don’t have much time to write since I am travelling. However, yesterday, October 11, at the close, a primary bull market was signaled according to Schannep’s Dow Theory, as the Industrials finally bettered their secondary reaction closing highs, and thus confirmed the SP 500. More about the setup that led to the signal here […]

Dow Theory Update for August 10: Two interesting articles which may help investors

posted on: August 10, 2016

Trends unchanged The Industrials remain below their secondary reaction closing highs, and hence no primary bull market signal has been signaled. More about this here The first article clearly shows that making money in the market is not so easy. Even for buy and hold, and assuming the very lenient US stock market for investors […]

Dow Theory Update for August 9: If the Industrials close above 18595.03 a primary bull market will be signaled

posted on: August 9, 2016

Trends unchanged I am writing before the close (13:51 pm NY time), so it might happen that if the Industrials exceed on a closing basis 18595.03 a primary bull market would be signaled. US STOCKS The primary trend turned bearish on June 24th, as was profusely explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction […]

Dow Theory Update for August 2: US stocks set up for primary bull market signal

posted on: August 2, 2016

Trends unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend turned bearish on June 24th, as was profusely explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary trend), as all three indices (Industrials, Transports and SP 500) have been rallying for more than 8 trading days (average of the three indices) and each of them […]