Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for August 20: Recent declines in Gold and Silver (and their ETF miners) do not qualify as a secondary reaction yet

posted on: August 20, 2016

Future important post When I find time (oh time!!!), I’d like to write about the market conditions where the Dow Theory (and specially Schannep’s Dow Theory) might “suffer” and underperform buy and hold. In previous studies (see here), I have shown that the Dow Theory tends to underperform buy and hold when markets display nice […]

Dow Theory Update for August 15: More on the primary bull market signal of August 11, 2016

posted on: August 15, 2016

Trends in precious metals universe unchanged US STOCKS As it was reported here, last August 11th a primary bull market was signaled according to Schannep’s Dow Theory. Here you have un updated chart. Schannep’s Dow Theory signaled primary bull market on August 11 It is important to note that the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory […]

Dow Theory Update for August 12: Primary bull market signaled yesterday

posted on: August 12, 2016

I don’t have much time to write since I am travelling. However, yesterday, October 11, at the close, a primary bull market was signaled according to Schannep’s Dow Theory, as the Industrials finally bettered their secondary reaction closing highs, and thus confirmed the SP 500. More about the setup that led to the signal here […]

Dow Theory Update for August 10: Two interesting articles which may help investors

posted on: August 10, 2016

Trends unchanged The Industrials remain below their secondary reaction closing highs, and hence no primary bull market signal has been signaled. More about this here The first article clearly shows that making money in the market is not so easy. Even for buy and hold, and assuming the very lenient US stock market for investors […]

Dow Theory Update for August 9: If the Industrials close above 18595.03 a primary bull market will be signaled

posted on: August 9, 2016

Trends unchanged I am writing before the close (13:51 pm NY time), so it might happen that if the Industrials exceed on a closing basis 18595.03 a primary bull market would be signaled. US STOCKS The primary trend turned bearish on June 24th, as was profusely explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction […]

Dow Theory Update for August 2: US stocks set up for primary bull market signal

posted on: August 2, 2016

Trends unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend turned bearish on June 24th, as was profusely explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary trend), as all three indices (Industrials, Transports and SP 500) have been rallying for more than 8 trading days (average of the three indices) and each of them […]

Dow Theory Update for July 21: Two typical Dow Theory misconceptions (II)

posted on: July 21, 2016

And setting the record straight I am writing before the open. Misconception 2: Lack of confirmation suffices to change a trend A recent article post on Zero Hedge with the bombastic title “The One Key Indicator Pointing To A Bear Market” makes two errors. The first one is to assume that the market is still […]

Dow Theory Update for July 19: Two typical Dow Theory misconceptions (I)

posted on: July 19, 2016

And setting the record straight Many badmouth the Dow Theory, and I must say for a good reason. Yes, criticism aimed at the Dow Theory does not surprise me because it is casually studied and applied. It appalls me to read many “experts” getting things half right, which is tantamount when investing money to half […]

Dow Theory Update for July 9: We are nearing a primary bull market signal for US Stocks

posted on: July 9, 2016

I don’t have much time to write or to post charts. Stocks closed strongly last Friday 8th. The Industrials and the SPY (S&P 500) have bettered the last recorded primary bull market closing highs of April 20th, 2016. The Industrials failed to do so. One of the primary trend signals according to Schannep’s Dow Theory […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Does it make sense to short with the Dow Theory?

posted on: July 8, 2016

Primary and Secondary Trends unchanged This post is my answer to Algyros, a faithful follower of this blog. Basically, he asked about shorting with the Dow Theory. Does it make sense? My first answer read as follows (link to it here): I’d summarize my opinion concerning shorting as follows: • Primary bear markets last less […]

Dow Theory Special issue: How good is Schannep’s Dow Theory at picking bottoms and exiting tops?

posted on: July 1, 2016

Trends unchanged on stocks and precious metals. On many occasions, and based on my observations of Schannep’s Dow Theory primary bull and bear market signals, I have written that buy signals tend to be signaled at roughly 5-7% from the lows (bottom) and sell signals at around 5-7% from the highs (top). I must confess […]

Dow Theory Update for June 29: Primary bull market for Gold and Silver reconfirmed

posted on: June 29, 2016

Silver and Gold miners ETFs made new confirmed higher highs US STOCKS The primary trend turned bearish on June 24th, as was profusely explained here. The secondary trend, evidently, is bearish too, as no secondary reaction has been born. The current rally is irrelevant from a Dow Theory standpoint, as the minimum time requirement has […]